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亚玛顿(002623):盈利有望改善 产能加速扩张

Armaton (002623): Profit is expected to improve production capacity and accelerate expansion

華金證券 ·  May 9, 2023 00:00  · Researches

Key points of investment

Event: The company released its 2022 annual report and 2023 quarterly report. In 2022, the company achieved operating income of 3.17 billion yuan, +55.9% year-on-year, net profit of 0.8 billion yuan, +54.8% year-on-year, gross profit margin 8.1%, year-on-year -0.2pct, net interest rate 2.7%, year-on-year -0.1 pct; of which, Q4 revenue was 880 million yuan, +42.8%/+8.3% year-on-month, net profit of 24 million yuan, +80.6%/+50.8% year-on-month, gross profit margin 9.6%, same ratio -2.0/++1.5pct.

2023Q1 achieved revenue of 8.1 billion yuan, +14.6%/-8.4% year-on-month, net profit of 16 million yuan, +41.7%/-35.9% year-on-month, gross profit margin of 6.9%, and +1.9/-2.7pct year-on-month. In 2022, the company's photovoltaic glass production and sales increased sharply year on year, and unit processing costs fell further, achieving a double increase in net revenue and profit.

There will be a big improvement in PV glass shipments in '22, and profits will improve significantly in '23: the company's PV glass shipments increased sharply in 2022, up 95.8% year on year to 140 million square meters, driving revenue growth of 65.3% to 2.88 billion yuan, accounting for 90.9% of revenue (+5.2 pct year on year); due to pressure on industry prices, the company's single PV glass sales price fell 15.6% to 20.4 yuan, and the gross profit per square was 1.7 yuan (-16.2% year-on-year). Looking ahead to 2023, the company will ship about 0.4 billion square meters of photovoltaic glass in 2023Q1, and the annual shipment is expected to reach 160 to 180 million square meters. As market demand increased, the price of photovoltaic glass rose in April, the superposition company's 1.6mm glass volume led to product structure optimization, and the decline in natural gas and soda ash prices brought about cost reduction. It is expected that the company's gross profit per sheet of photovoltaic glass will rise to more than 2 yuan in 2023.

Orders for photovoltaic glass are sufficient, and production capacity continues to expand: in 2022, the company signed sales strategy framework contracts with Tianhe Solar Energy and Jingao Technology, respectively. From June 2022 to 2025, the company sold 340 million square meters of 1.6mm ultra-thin photovoltaic glass to Tianhe and sold 280 million square meters of photovoltaic glass to Jingao from 2023 to 2025. The signing of a sales framework contract is conducive to the marketing of the company's ultra-thin photovoltaic glass and guarantees performance growth. The company is also speeding up the expansion of production capacity and optimizing the production capacity layout. In 2022, a holding subsidiary was set up in Benxi to expand the ultra-thin photovoltaic glass deep processing production line. It is expected that production will be put into operation in the second half of 2023. The expansion of production capacity will further increase the company's market share in the ultra-thin photovoltaic glass field.

Continued technological innovation to improve core competitiveness: (1) In terms of the module business, the company has made a strategic transformation, focusing on BIPV-related fields. At present, it has designed and developed a variety of products that meet application scenarios such as photovoltaic+civil tile roofing. (2) In terms of electronic glass and other glass, the company shipped 180,000 square meters in 2022, an increase of 46% over the same period. The company will continue to focus on advancing the industrialization of new products and processes such as glass diffuser plates, light guide panels, and full lamination processes to reserve endogenous growth momentum for subsequent development. (3) In terms of perovskite, the company has studied TCO glass-related technology earlier. In 2022, samples of ITO glass were sent in small batches according to customer needs. After successful introduction, the company will continue to stock up and improve technology and experience, and can be quickly introduced after the technology is industrialized.

Investment suggestions: The company is a leading company in ultra-thin photovoltaic glass. The stable supply of original glass will fully benefit from the high growth of the photovoltaic industry and the increase in the penetration rate of the double glass market. With excellent R&D capabilities, the company is also expanding its diversified product layout to add new profit growth points for subsequent development. We expect the company's net profit to the mother in 2023-2025 to be 140 million yuan, 210 million yuan, and 301 million yuan respectively. The corresponding PE is 38.8, 25.4, 17.2 times, covered for the first time, and gave a “buy-A” investment rating.

Risk warning: PV installations fall short of expectations; industry competition pattern worsens; new business expansion falls short of expectations, etc.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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