Event description
Karen shares released annual report and quarterly report: the company's annual income in 2022 was 2.13 billion yuan, down 18% from the same period last year, and the attributable net profit was-160 million yuan, compared with 70 million yuan in the same period last year, corresponding to 590 million yuan in the fourth quarter, down 10% from the same period last year. The attributable net profit was-180 million yuan, down 70% from the same period last year. The income in the first quarter of 2023 was 510 million yuan, an increase of 56%, and the attributable net profit was 34 million yuan. A year-on-year increase of 300%.
Event comment
Property downside income came under pressure, but the decline narrowed quarter by quarter. The company's annual revenue was 2.13 billion yuan, down 18% from the same period last year. In terms of categories, the company's revenue from waterproof roll materials decreased by 25% compared with the same period last year, and revenue from waterproof coatings decreased by 10% compared with the same period last year. On the one hand, it is greatly affected by real estate demand. In 2022, the area of new housing construction fell 39% year on year, and the area completed for the whole year dropped 15% year on year. On the other hand, the company properly controls the pace and scale of the development of collection and acquisition business. The growth rate of the company's income in the single quarter from 2201 to 2204 was-27%,-23%,-13% and-10%, respectively. With the bottom of the industry, the decline in the company's single-quarter income has also narrowed significantly. The price of asphalt rose sharply and profits fell for the whole year. The gross profit margin for the whole year was 19.5%, down 10.9pct from the same period last year, of which the gross profit margin for waterproof roll materials was 20.4%, falling 14.1pct from the same period last year, mainly due to the sharp rise in the price of raw material asphalt. According to Longzhong information, the average price of asphalt in the national market in 2022 was about 4200 yuan, up more than 30% from the same period last year; the gross profit margin of waterproof coatings was 19.4%, an increase of 2.0pct over the same period last year, or mainly due to downward costs such as emulsion. The expense rate for the whole year was about 21.5%, up 3.3% from the same period last year, of which the year-on-year changes in sales, management, R & D and financial rates were + 0.3%, + 1.9%, + 0.8% and + 0.4% respectively, or mainly due to the increase in cost sharing caused by the decline in income. The credit impairment loss of the company for the whole year was 130 million yuan, compared with 250 million yuan in the same period last year. The final annual attributable net interest rate was-7.5%, down 10.3 percentage points from the same period last year. The quality of operation began to improve. The net operating cash flow of the company in 2022 is 50 million yuan, which is the first time to become a regular employee since 2017. from 2018 to 2021, it is about-0.2,0.5,1.1 and-340 million yuan respectively. At the end of 2022, the company's accounts and bills receivable were about 1.95 billion yuan, down 70 million yuan from the same period last year. The company's income-to-cash ratio in 2022 was 1.05, which was significantly higher than that of 0.62 in 2021, or mainly due to the active contraction of slow and high-risk projects, while strengthening the collection of receivables. However, with the sharp rise in the cost of asphalt, the cash-to-cash ratio of the company has also increased, 1.10 in 2022 and 0.78 in 2021.
There has been a great improvement in business operation in the first quarter. The company's revenue in the first quarter was 510 million yuan, an increase of 56% over the same period last year. The gross profit margin in the first quarter was 22.7%, up 2.1pct from the same period last year. Under the background that the price of asphalt is still rising compared with the same period last year, or due to the increase in revenue, the expense rate in the first quarter was 20.0%, which decreased by 0.7pct compared with the same period last year. The quarterly credit impairment losses of sales, management, R & D, and financial rates were less, only about 5 million yuan, respectively, compared with the same period last year.
The final net interest rate of attribution in the first quarter was about 6.8%, an increase of 4.1pct over the same period last year, and the net profit of attribution increased by about 300% over the same period last year.
β upward period, is expected to show profit flexibility. In the real estate recovery cycle, the company's income elasticity is significant, and the asphalt price is higher after the second quarter of last year. Under the current asphalt price, the gross margin pressure is expected to be significantly reduced compared with the same period last year, and the profit elasticity is higher. In addition, the company actively develops the application scene of polymer waterproof materials, promotes the cross-border integration of photovoltaic and building waterproofing, and opens up new growth points.
It is estimated that the net profit attributable to 2023-2024 is 1.7 or 280 million yuan, corresponding to the valuation of PE 34, 20 times, continue to recommend.
Risk hint
1. The real estate industry rebounded less than expected.
The price of raw materials continues to rise.