The 2022 results showed high growth, operating profit was corrected, and various businesses developed steadily. The company announced that revenue for the full year of 2022 was 9.577 billion yuan, +64.56% year on year, and net profit of 401 million yuan, +228.09% year on year, turning loss into profit (2021-313 million yuan); of these, Q4 revenue was 1,953 million yuan, +15.77% year on year, and Guimo's net profit was 58 million yuan.

2023Q1 revenue was 2,708 million yuan, +34.78% year on year, and net profit of the mother was 103 million yuan, +15.68% year on year. The growth in the company's performance has mainly benefited from the rapid development of the photovoltaic industry, rising demand, the release of the company's production capacity and the improvement of management capabilities.

The N-type TopCon battery project is progressing rapidly. 3.0 advanced technology reduces costs and increases efficiency. According to CPIA data, the market share of TopCon batteries in 2022 was about 8.3%, and the total output was about 27.12 GW; in 2023, the market share will rise to about 18.9%, and production will reach 89.98 GW. The company's large-size N-type battery project is progressing smoothly. The first batch of 4 GW of the 1.5 GW monocrystalline double-sided Topcon solar cell project in Taizhou and the first phase (8 GW) of the 16 GW high-efficiency monocrystalline battery project in Shanxi have all been mass-produced. Currently, construction of the remaining 4 GW and phase 2 8 GW projects is continuing. The strategic layout is early, and the company has a first-mover advantage in high-efficiency battery technology. Currently, J-TopCon 2.0 technologies used in large-scale mass production all use self-developed POPAID technology, which can solve coiling problems, improve yield and reduce process costs. At the same time, the company continues to strengthen technology research and development. Currently, the average mass production efficiency of TopCon 2.016bb mainframe high-efficiency batteries has reached 25.2%, the average conversion efficiency of TopCon double-sided modules exceeds 22.1%, and TopCon3.0 technology battery laboratory efficiency has reached 26.7%.

The transparent backboard has broad prospects, and the backboard business continues to gain strength

According to CPIA data, module production reached 288.7 GW in 2022, and double-sided power generation modules accounted for 40.4% of the market. By 2024, double-sided modules are expected to become mainstream in the market. According to CPIA's forecast, the total industry's component production will reach 433.1 GW in 2023, and the corresponding demand for transparent backboards will be about 280 million square meters, and as the double-sided ratio of components increases, the proportion of transparent backboards and glass backpanels will gradually increase. According to the company's empirical data, the transmittance of the double-sided single glass transparent+grid backpanel module increased by 3.5% compared to the double-sided double glass module, the power generation capacity of a single watt increased by 0.72%-1.78%, and the average operating temperature was reduced by 1-2 ℃. At the same time, the N-type double-sided single glass+transparent backplate module was reduced by 20% compared to traditional double glass modules, and had the advantages of high UV resistance, high light transmittance and low internal stress. Transportation and installation are more convenient, reducing the possibility of self-explosion and reducing the risk of battery collapse. Long-term customers of the company's transparent grid backboard products include Jingke, Tianhe, BYD, Shenzhou, Tenghui, Korea Hyundai, etc. By the end of 2022, the company's backplane had an annual production capacity of 220 million square meters, with cumulative shipments exceeding 210 GW, and the leading backboard position was stable. Within the year, the company completed the construction of a 50 million square meter coated backboard project with an annual output of 50 million square meters, and the planned 250 million square meter general-purpose photovoltaic backboard project has been approved and is currently in the EIA stage. The company built a new production capacity to switch production of a full range of coated products, increasing production capacity while further helping mass production of transparent backplates.

State-owned investors provided assistance from various sources. The company's control of the timely arrangement of upstream silicon projects was successfully transferred to Zhejiang Electric Power in February. The integration of state-owned capital will help the company enhance its resilience to risks and profitability, and provide the company with resources for financing channels, market expansion and industrial cooperation, which is conducive to the company's future development. The company continues to expand upstream and downstream development opportunities in the industrial chain. At present, the company has completed the establishment of a new high-purity polysilicon project company with an annual output of 200,000 tons of industrial silicon and an annual output of 100,000 tons, and has obtained an enterprise project investment registration certificate in Shanxi Province. The project is currently in the third party evaluation stage of the preliminary approval procedure. The total investment for this project is about 14 billion yuan. The total investment period is expected to be 5 years. The Taiyuan municipal government will form an industrial fund to participate in the investment. After the project is completed, it will strengthen the company's upstream raw material insurance and supply capacity.

State-owned investment will provide a wide range of industrial and financial resources. It is estimated that the company's net profit for 2023-2025 is 927 million yuan/1,465 million investment suggestions and profit forecasts: the company is leading in the backboard field, leading technology for N-type battery and module products, and the gradual release of production capacity, /2,039 million, compared to the previous PE valuation 16/10/7 times, maintaining the “buy” rating.

Risk warning: The global economy is sluggish, demand for new energy is declining; the competitive pattern within the photovoltaic industry has deteriorated; raw material prices have fluctuated greatly; new technology has replaced crystalline silicon products; the company's production capacity has fallen short of expectations; trade barriers between Europe and the US have hindered the development of the industry.