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金冠电气(688517):盈利能力逐步优化 第二曲线兑现在即

Jinguan Electric (688517): The second curve of gradual optimization of profitability is about to be realized

興業證券 ·  May 7, 2023 00:00  · Researches

Incident: The company released its 2022 annual report and the first quarter report of 2023. The company achieved operating income of 606 million yuan for the full year of 2022, +13.99% year on year; achieved net profit of 79 million yuan, +14.02% year on year, and net profit of Fumo was 72 million yuan after deduction, +19.66% year on year. 2023Q1 achieved revenue of 86 million yuan, +20.79% year on year, and achieved net profit of 0.9 billion yuan, +306.21% year on year, net profit of the mother after deduction of 0.08 million yuan. Compared with +358.63%, the company's performance was slightly better than market expectations.

Lightning arresters and distribution network products are the core of revenue, and charging piles and energy storage have begun a second growth curve. Lightning arresters and distribution network products are the main source of the company's revenue. In 2022, the company's lightning arrester achieved revenue of 219 million yuan, +8.30% year on year; distribution network products achieved revenue of 248 million yuan, +17.40% year on year. The two revenue businesses accounted for more than 75%, which is still the company's most important source of revenue. Charging stations and energy storage have gradually become a new driving force for the company's growth. In 2022, the company's charging stations achieved revenue of 61 million yuan and energy storage revenue of 74 million yuan, accounting for more than 20% of the company's revenue.

2022Q4 is beginning to increase its profitability even further. Looking at profitability, the company's gross margin improved significantly year-on-year in 202Q4 and 2023Q1. Among them, 202Q4 mainly benefited from UHV lightning arrester revenue confirmation and shipment structure optimization, while 2023Q1 benefited from the rise in non-UHV lightning arrester prices. It is expected that as the proportion of new orders in revenue confirmation after the price increase gradually increases, the trend of gross margin optimization for non-UHV lightning arresters will gradually be confirmed during the year.

Traditional business orders are full, and the whole county is pushing forward to help the charging station business grow rapidly. The company's lightning arrester business received orders of 230 million yuan, and the start of the State Grid UHV project peaked in 2023. Subsequent tenders for various projects from Longdong to Shandong are expected to contribute to the growth of the company's lightning arrester business. The company uses the whole county to promote its business model, using local Henan as the cornerstone to boost the central market. The company's charging station business is expected to experience rapid growth.

Investment advice: The company's net profit for 2023-2025 is estimated to be 1.43/204/266 million yuan. Based on the closing price on May 5, the corresponding PE is 17.6/12.4/9.5 times, maintaining the company's purchase rating.

Risk warning: policy results fall short of expectations; downstream demand falls short of expectations; industry competition intensifies; macroeconomic fluctuations; industry policy changes.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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