Guimu lost some money in net profit, and professional integration work was fully initiated. In 2022, the company achieved operating income of 76.77 billion yuan, or -25.2% year on year; net profit attributed to the mother was -10.91 billion yuan, -387.1% year on year. The main reasons for Guimu's net profit loss were: 1) the decline in gross margin of the comprehensive tourism business; 2) loss of asset impairment; and 3) loss of net income from investment. First-quarter results are still under pressure. In the first quarter of 2023, the company achieved operating income of 6.92 billion yuan, or -7.4% year on year; the net profit returned to the mother was -300 million yuan, -271.7% year on year. The main reason for Guimu's net profit loss was the decline in gross sales margin and the impact of minority shareholders' profit and loss. Professional integration work will be fully launched in 2022. With the full implementation of specialized integration, the ability of various businesses to specialize and develop in a market-based manner will steadily improve.
Real estate sales rankings have risen, and cultural tourism has caught up with new trends in market consumption. In terms of real estate, the company achieved a total contracted sales area of 2.67 million square meters in 2022, or -33% over the same period last year; contracted sales were 55.3 billion yuan, or -33% year on year, and the company's industry ranking rose from 50 in 2021 to 35. In the first quarter of 2023, the company achieved a total contract sales area of 510,000 square meters, +14% year on year; contract sales amount was 8.6 billion yuan, +5% year on year, and positive growth resumed. In the future, the company's real estate business will develop into a “city” and implement the “one, two wings and three functions” development model. In terms of cultural tourism, the company's travel programs received a total of 61.849 million visitors in 2022, 69% of the same period last year and 155% of the same period in 2019. Excluding incremental projects, the comparable perspective was 53% of the same period in 2019. The company's travel companies received more than 23 million visitors in the first quarter of 2023, an increase of about 80% over last year. In the future, the company's tourism business will strengthen its “city” and accelerate the construction of a “two-core, three-dimensional multi-point” development pattern.
Land is carefully acquired, and land reserves are quite plentiful. In 2022, the company added 5 new land reserves, including 3 land development cases, located in Chengdu, Dongguan and Shenzhen, respectively. The land area was 311,000 square meters, the total land acquisition price was 2.61 billion yuan, the equity ratio was 53.1%, the land acquisition effort was 4.7%, and land acquisition was cautious. In the first quarter of 2023, Shunde Happy Coast PLUS Phase II was newly acquired, adding an additional 301,000 square meters of land. The land acquisition amount was 2.11 billion yuan, the equity ratio was 70.0%, and the land acquisition effort was 24.5%. As of March 31, the company's remaining developable area was 11.731 million square meters, and the remaining developable planned area/sales area of the company in 2022 was 4.4 years.
The capital structure is stable, and operating risks are manageable. The company's interest-bearing debt balance in 2022 was $128.1 billion, down $11 billion from the previous year. In 2022, the company replaced more than 40 billion yuan of short-term and one-year debt, and is expected to save about 700 million yuan in interest. Meanwhile, the company's comprehensive financing costs have been continuously optimized. As of the end of 2022, it was 4.23%, down 23 BP from the beginning of the year.
Investment advice: Performance pressure has been fully released. Under the background advantage of central enterprises, the real estate business benefits from supply-side reforms, and the cultural tourism business, as an industry leader, benefits from the recovery trend. We predict that the company's EPS for 23-24 will be 0.05 and 0.27 yuan respectively, and the BPS will be 8.44 and 8.72 yuan respectively. Based on the closing price on May 5, 2023, the corresponding PB will be 0.6 times and 0.6 times, maintaining the “increase in holdings” rating.
Risk warning: Real estate sales fall short of expectations, uncertainty about the epidemic, and real estate policy regulation exceeds expectations.