天齐锂业(002466):业绩同比大增 成本优势明显

Tianqi Lithium (002466): Significant year-on-year increase in performance and obvious cost advantage

浙商證券 ·  05/06  · Researches

Tianqi Lithium released its 2023 Q1 results: the company's 23Q1 revenue was 11.449 billion yuan, +117.77% year on year, -27.55% month on month; net profit of the mother was 4.875 billion yuan, +46.49% year on year, -40.13% month on month; net profit of the non-return mother was 48.36, +70.67% year on year, -40.58% month on month.

The year-on-year increase in product prices led to a sharp rise in revenue

According to the company's disclosure, the average sales prices of lithium compounds and derivatives and lithium ore in 23Q1 increased by 40.47% and 245.09% respectively over the same period last year. According to Australian miner IGO, Greenbush's Q1 lithium concentrate production reached 356,000 tons in '23, down 6% from the previous month. The 23Q1 sales price is $5783 per ton FOB, and the guide price for 23Q2 is $544/ton FOB. Furthermore, IGO revealed that Greenbush's production in fiscal year 23 was at the upper end of the guideline of about 1.45 million tons.

The company built a company that is 100% self-sufficient in concentrate and extremely low production costs. The company's gross profit 23Q1 company reached 90%, far exceeding that of other domestic lithium companies. Thanks to the company's 100% self-supply of concentrate, and IGO revealed that the Q1 Greenbush lithium concentrate production cost was only 292 Australian dollars/ton. The extremely low production cost can help the company get through the “cold winter” of the industry without fear of fluctuations in lithium prices.

Investments in SQM are expected to continue to contribute to increased performance in the future. Chile's Nationalization Influences Company Limited holds 22.16% of Chilean SQM's shares and is its second largest shareholder. The company revealed that according to Bloomberg's forecast, the investment income confirmed by the 23Q1 company increased significantly compared to the previous year. At present, overseas lithium prices are still high, and SQM production capacity has reached 180,000 tons. In the future, SQM is expected to bring continuous investment income and stable dividends to the company. The Chilean president has now clearly emphasized that SQM's existing quota contract is still in effect. At the same time, SQM, as the world's largest supplier of lithium compounds, contributes a lot of tax revenue to the region, and the Chilean government still needs to seek SQM cooperation in production processes, etc. In the future, SQM will still have chips to negotiate after the quota expires. We suggest continuing to monitor subsequent nationalization progress and rules.

It has established various forms of strategic partnerships with leading upstream and downstream enterprises to fully seize the latest opportunities and upstream resources. The company will continue to seek partners to expand the deployment of high-quality lithium resources and continue to promote strategic cooperation. In the downstream industry chain, the company continues to strategically lay out new energy materials and next-generation battery technology manufacturers, including solid-state batteries, in the new energy value chain, and cooperates in businesses such as precursor production and battery recycling, focusing on investment opportunities in electric vehicles and energy storage applications.

Profit forecasting and valuation

We maintain our previous profit forecasts. We expect the company's revenue for 2023-2025 to be 437.2, 361.9, and 36.35 billion yuan respectively, +8.1%, -17.2%, and +0.45%, respectively; the net profit of the mother is 226.2, 202.6, and 21.13 billion yuan respectively, -6.2%, -10.5%, +4.3%, respectively. EPS is 13.8/12.3/12.9 yuan/share, and the corresponding PE is 5.2/5.9/5.6 times, respectively. According to this previous year's review report, the company's valuation in 2023 was maintained 8 times, corresponding to the target price of 110.3 yuan, and the purchase rating was maintained.

Risk warning

The release of global lithium resources exceeded expectations. Downstream demand fell short of expectations. The release of production capacity fell short of expectations.

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