2023Q1 公司毛利率为6.13%，同比下降2.87pct，这主要是因为1）整体销量相比去年较低，2023Q1 实现公司整车销量5.85 万辆，同比下降12.46%，其中中重卡销售4.92 万辆；2）新能源车盈利较少，相对于其他产品，公司新能源产品利润率较低，新能源销量增加使得公司盈利能力降低；3）轻卡销量高于去年同期，2023Q1 公司轻卡销售9165 辆，同比增长76.9%，相较于中重卡，轻卡的盈利能力较低，轻卡占比提高也拉低了公司毛利率。我们认为，随着公司J7 等中高端高毛利产品逐步起量，规模效应降带动公司盈利能力提升，且重卡景气度上行将带动公司中重卡销量回暖，盈利能力将有所提高。FAW Jiefang 2023Q1 achieved revenue of 14.038 billion yuan, -7.38% year on year
The company released its report for the first quarter of 2023. The company achieved revenue of 14.038 billion yuan in 2023Q1, a decrease of 7.38% over the previous year; the net profit of the mother was 62 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 86.34%. Considering the recovery in demand in the heavy truck industry in 2023, we raised the 2023/2024 profit forecast and added the 2025 profit forecast. The estimated revenue for 2023-2025 was 536.82 (-25.32) /714.19 (-21.02) /89.201 billion yuan respectively, and the net profit of the mother was 22.59 (+5.24) /36.95 (+1.76) /4.855 billion yuan, corresponding to EPS of 0.49 (+0.12) /0.79 (+0.03) /1.04 yuan Corresponding to the current stock price PE of 17.4/10.6/8.1 times, maintaining the company's “buy” rating.
New energy structure transformation, gross margin under pressure
2023Q1's gross margin was 6.13%, a year-on-year decrease of 2.87 pct. This is mainly because 1) overall sales were lower than last year. 2023Q1 achieved sales of 58,500 units of the company's vehicles, a year-on-year decrease of 12.46%, of which 492,000 were sold for medium and heavy trucks; 2) New energy vehicles were less profitable. Compared with other products, the company's profit margin for new energy products was lower, and the company's profitability was reduced due to increased sales of new energy vehicles; 3) Light truck sales were higher than the same period last year. 2023Q1 sold 9165 light trucks, an increase of 76.9 over the previous year %. Compared to medium and heavy trucks, the profitability of light trucks is low, and the increase in the proportion of light trucks has also lowered the company's gross profit margin. We believe that with the gradual launch of mid-range and high-end high-margin products such as the company's J7, the decline in scale effect will drive the company's profitability to increase, and the rise in heavy truck boom will drive the company's medium and heavy truck sales to pick up, and profitability will increase.
Export layout accelerates, profitability may continue to improve
According to data from the China Automobile Association, China exported 75,200 heavy trucks in Q1 2023, an increase of 107.9% over the previous year, and the export market was prosperous. Although FAW Jiefang started its efforts late on the export side, it exported 6,000 vehicles in 2020, 14,000 vehicles in 2021, and 28,000 vehicles in 2022, and its export volume increased rapidly. In 2023, the company will maintain high export investment, expand product exports, create a liberated overseas brand image, and continue to break through new markets. As the company's export layout accelerates, the company's profitability will grow further.
Risk warning: The recovery of the industry fell short of expectations, raw material prices fluctuated greatly, and industry competition intensified.
