Sanfu Outdoor (002780): Q1 revenue exceeds pre-pandemic levels, XB brand growth can be expected

華西證券 · Apr 30, 2023 00:00 · Researches

事件概述

公司2022 年收入/归母净利/扣非归母净利/经营性现金流分别为5.62/-0.33/-0.39/-0.46 亿元、同比增长1.23%/-26.79%/-48.89%/-247.46%。22Q4 公司收入/归母净利/扣非归母净利分别为2.01/0.01/-0.03 亿元、收入同比下降3%。

23Q1 收入/净利/扣非净利分别为1.88/0.08/0.07 亿元，同比增长43%/246%/482%，收入较21Q1 增长46%。

分析判断：

XBIONIC 收入维持较快增长。22 年XB 独立直营店为15 家。品牌也聘请了何穗、王子威、王心迪为品牌代言人。2022 年公司自有品牌收入为1.58 亿元、占比达31.17%；其中服装/鞋袜/装备类收入为1.45/0.07/0.05亿元，占比分别为92%/5%/3%、同比增长33%/2%/10%；其中X-BIONIC 产品收入为1.27 亿元、同比增长37%，低于我们原预计的翻倍增长主要由于冬季旺季受疫情影响线下门店。

主业疫情期间下降3%、基本保持平稳，松鼠乐园受疫情影响客流。2022 年户外用品/户外服务/口罩收入分别为5.06/0.56/0.01 亿元、同比增长5%/-13%/-93%，剔除XB 品牌后主业收入同比下降3%。（1）线下门店业务收入为2.88 亿元、同比增长2.4%；截至2022 年末共48 家零售店（其中旗舰店/标准店/精品店/品牌店/滑雪店分别8/12/13/7/8 家）、店数和面积均持平，推出平效同比增长2.4%。（2）线上收入1.92 亿，同比增长11.83%；自建平台及第三方销售平台GMV 为3.5 亿元、同比增长60%，2022 年用户人均消费达223 元，官网注册用户数量为18.67 万、同比持平。（3）2022 年全年公司松鼠乐园累计接待游客48.34 万人次，同比下降31%，对应客单价116 元、增长26%。

费用投入加大导致净利率下滑，而23Q1 则体现规模效应、费用率下降。（1）2022 年公司毛利率为52.67%、同比增加2.37PCT，主要来自户外产品毛利率大幅提升：2022 年户外产品毛利率分别为57.70%，同比增加4.97PCT；线上/线下分别增加3.66/7.53PCT 至60.57%/56.42%。2022 年净利率为-6.88%、同比下降2.34PCT。2022 年销售/管理/研发/财务费用率分别为37.01%/14.59%/1.96%/2.14%、同比增加5.90/2.18/-0.02/0.34PCT，销售和管理费用增加主要由于公司品牌营销投入。（2）23Q1 公司毛利率为51.27%、同比减少11.43PCT。23Q1 公司净利率为3.51% 、同比增加1.99PCT。23Q1 年销售/管理/研发/ 财务费用率分别为28.72%/11.17%/1.06%/2.13%、同比下降6.39/3.33/1.23/0.16PCT。

关注去库存进展。2022 年末公司存货为3.43 亿元，同比增长39%，环比增长7%，存货周转天数为399天、同比减少81 天、环比减少76 天。公司应收账款为0.24 亿元，同比下降17%、环比下降23%。平均应收账款周转天数为17 天，同比减少4 天、环比减少5 天。23Q1 末公司存货为3.84 亿元，同比增长52%、环比增长12%。存货周转天数为357 天、同比减少102 天、环比减少42 天。公司应收账款为0.39 亿元，同比减少2%、环比增长61%。平均应收账款周转天数为15 天，同比减少8 天、环比减少2 天。

投资建议

我们分析，（1）X-BIONIC 疫后将迎来复苏，有望体现出；高（增2）长户外服务即“松鼠部落亲子户外乐园+三夫小勇士+鹰极安全教育基地”也有望迎来疫后客流恢3）复未；来（公司将重点打造瑞典山系经典品牌Klattermusen（攀山鼠）+意大利手工匠心传承鞋品 CRISPI+经典工装鞋靴品牌 DANNER+战术背包品牌 Mystery　　Ranch+专业户外鞋品牌 LA SPORTIVA 的代理品牌矩阵，攀山鼠品牌22 年也已在上海和杭州新开2 家门店，2022 年攀山鼠销售额为 5000 万元，同比增长 1000%以上。公司于2 月28 日公告筹划定增。下调23-24 年收入预测9.52/11.62 亿元至7.31/9.15 亿元、新增25 年收入预测11.64 亿元，下调 23-24 年归母净利预测0.7/0.83 亿元至0.31/0.61 亿元、新增25 年归母净利预测0.90 亿元，对应调整23-24 年EPS 预测0.44/0.53元至0.20/0.39 元、新增25 年EPS 预测0.57 元，2023 年4 月28 日收盘价11.88 元对应23/24/25 年PE 估值为55/28/19X，维持“增持”评级。

风险提示

X-BIONIC 运营不及预期；松鼠乐园客流恢复不及预期；线下门店拓展不及预期；系统性风险；拟定增尚未完成，存在不确定性。

Incident Overview

The company's 2022 revenue/net profit attributable to the mother/net profit after deducting non-attributable profit/operating cash flow was 5.62/-0.33/-0.39/ -0.46 billion yuan, up 1.23%/-26.79%/-48.89%/-247.46%, respectively. In 22Q4, the company's revenue/net profit attributable to the mother/net profit after deducting non-return to the mother was 2.01/0.01/0.3 billion yuan respectively, and revenue decreased 3% year-on-year.

23Q1 revenue/net profit/net profit after deducting non-net profit was $1888/0.08/07 million respectively, up 43%/246%/482% year on year, and revenue increased 46% over 21Q1.

Analytical judgment:

XBIONIC's revenue continued to grow at a relatively rapid pace. There were 15 independent direct stores operated by XB in '22. The brand also hired Ho Sui, Wang Ziwei, and Wang Xindi as brand ambassadors. The company's own brand revenue in 2022 was 158 million yuan, accounting for 31.17%; of these, clothes/footwear/equipment revenue was 145/0.07/05 million yuan, accounting for 92%/5%/3% respectively, up 33%/2%/10% year on year; of these, X-BIONIC product revenue was 127 million yuan, an increase of 37% over the previous year. The double increase was lower than our original forecast due to offline stores affected by the epidemic during the peak winter season.

The main business fell 3% during the pandemic and remained stable. The number of visitors to Squirrel Park was affected by the epidemic. Revenue of outdoor products/outdoor services/masks in 2022 was 506/0.56/01 million yuan respectively, up 5%/-13%/-93% year on year. After excluding the XB brand, the main business revenue fell 3% year on year. (1) Offline store business revenue was 288 million yuan, an increase of 2.4% over the previous year; as of the end of 2022, there were 48 retail stores (of which flagship stores, standard stores, boutiques, brand stores, and ski stores were 8/12/13/7/8 respectively), the number of stores and area were the same, and the launch efficiency increased 2.4% year-on-year. (2) Online revenue was 192 million, an increase of 11.83% over the previous year; self-built platforms and third-party sales platforms GMV were 350 million yuan, an increase of 60% over the previous year. The per capita consumption of users in 2022 reached 223 yuan, and the number of registered users on the official website was 186,700, the same as the previous year. (3) In 2022, the company's squirrel park received a total of 483,400 visitors, a year-on-year decrease of 31%. The corresponding customer unit price was 116 yuan, an increase of 26%.

Increased cost investment led to a decline in net interest rates, while 23Q1 showed a scale effect and a decrease in the cost ratio. (1) The company's gross margin in 2022 was 52.67%, an increase of 2.37 PCT over the previous year, mainly due to the sharp increase in gross margin of outdoor products: in 2022, the gross margin of outdoor products was 57.70%, an increase of 4.97 PCT over the previous year; online/offline, an increase of 3.66/7.53 PCT to 60.57%/56.42%, respectively. The net interest rate in 2022 was -6.88%, down 2.34PCT year over year. The sales/management/R&D/finance expense ratio in 2022 was 37.01%/14.59%/1.96%/2.14%, respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 5.90/2.18/-0.02/0.34PCT. The increase in sales and management expenses was mainly due to the company's brand marketing investment. (2) The company's gross margin in 23Q1 was 51.27%, a year-on-year decrease of 11.43 PCT. The company's net interest rate in 23Q1 was 3.51%, an increase of 1.99 PCT over the previous year. The sales/management/R&D/finance expense ratio in 23Q1 was 28.72%/11.17%/1.06%/2.13%, respectively, down 6.39/3.33/1.23/0.16PCT from the previous year.

Follow the progress of inventory removal. At the end of 2022, the company's inventory was 343 million yuan, an increase of 39% over the previous year, an increase of 7% over the previous month. The number of inventory turnover days was 399 days, a decrease of 81 days from the previous year, and a decrease of 76 days from the previous month. The company's accounts receivable were $24 million, down 17% year on year and 23% month on month. The average number of accounts receivable turnover days was 17 days, a decrease of 4 days over the previous year and a decrease of 5 days from the previous month. At the end of 23Q1, the company's inventory was 384 million yuan, up 52% year on year and 12% month on month. The number of inventory turnaround days was 357 days, a decrease of 102 days from the previous year and a decrease of 42 days from the previous month. The company's accounts receivable amounted to 39 million yuan, a decrease of 2% year on year and an increase of 61% month on month. The average number of accounts receivable turnover days was 15 days, a decrease of 8 days over the previous year and a decrease of 2 days from the previous month.

Investment advice

According to our analysis, (1) X-BIONIC will usher in a recovery after the epidemic, which is expected to be reflected; the high (increase 2) long outdoor service, that is, “Squirrel Tribe Family Outdoor Park+Three Warriors+Eagle Extreme Safety Education Base” is also expected to usher in post-epidemic passenger traffic recovery 3) No; come (the company will focus on building classic Swedish mountain brand Klattermusen (Mountain Climber) +Italian handmade ingenuity heritage footwear CRISPI+ classic cargo shoe brand DANNER+ tactical backpack brand Mystery Ranch+ LA professional outdoor shoes brand SPORTIVA's agency brand matrix, the Mountain Climber brand also opened 2 new stores in Shanghai and Hangzhou in '22. Mountain Climber's sales in 2022 were 50 million yuan, an increase of more than 1000% over the previous year. The company announced the planned increase on February 28. The 23-24 revenue forecast was lowered by 952/1,162 million yuan to 731/915 million yuan, the 25-year revenue forecast was increased by 1,164 million yuan, the 23-24 net profit forecast was lowered by 0.7/83 million yuan to the mother to the mother, the net profit forecast for 25 years was lowered by 90 million yuan, the corresponding adjustment to the 23-24 EPS forecast was 0.44/0.53 yuan to 0.20/0.39 yuan, the 25-year EPS forecast was increased by 0.57 yuan, April 28, 2023 The daily closing price of 11.88 yuan corresponds to the 23/24/25 PE valuation of 55/28/19X, maintaining the “increase in holdings” rating.

Risk warning

X-BIONIC operations fell short of expectations; Squirrel Park passenger flow recovery fell short of expectations; offline store expansion fell short of expectations; systemic risks; planned increases have not been completed, and there is uncertainty.

The translation is provided by third-party software.

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三夫户外(002780)：Q1收入超过疫情前水平 XB品牌成长可期

Sanfu Outdoor (002780): Q1 revenue exceeds pre-pandemic levels, XB brand growth can be expected

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