2023Q1 performance steady growth, optimistic that the Q2 channel dividend will continue to release, maintain the "buy" rating company to release the quarterly report of 2023, 2023Q1 achieved operating income of 175 million yuan (- 8.5%), return to the mother net profit of 40 million yuan (+ 6.3%), deducting non-net profit of 30 million yuan (+ 7.4%), 2023Q1 income is under periodic pressure under the slow recovery of consumer demand, and the improvement of gross profit margin leads to the improvement of profitability. The inflection point at the end of performance has emerged. The company accelerated channel reform and new business recruitment, superimposed low base effect, performance is expected to usher in the release of 2023Q2, we maintain the profit forecast, estimated 2023-2025 return net profit of 2.6x31xpx, corresponding to EPS of 1.43ppm 1.66x1.83, the current share price corresponds to PE of 11.8exp 10.2max 9.2 times, maintaining the "buy" rating.
2023Q1 gross profit margin increased 3.4pct, sales costs high support channels to expand 2023Q1 gross profit margin 47.7% (+ 3.4pct), mainly driven by the falling price of raw materials, improved production efficiency, and continued improvement in product structure. During the 2023Q1 period, the expense rate is 22.5% (- 1.7pct), of which the sales / management / R & D / financial expense rate is 16.0%, 6.6%, 3.5%, 3.6%, and + 3.6/-1.1/-4.3/+0.1pct, respectively, compared with the same period last year. The increase in the sales expense rate is large, which verifies the company's marketing brand's determination to fight high, support channel expansion, push new sales and sell higher. The rate of R & D expenditure has decreased greatly, and the main companies have completed the development of new products ahead of schedule in 2022Q4. In the context of increased cost investment, profitability still continues to improve. 2022Q4 net interest rate is 22.9% (+ 3.2pct), deducting non-net interest rate is 19.4% (+ 2.9pct). According to the market share of online sales / sales of Shuafeng Integrated cooker in March of AVC,2023 is 8.3% and 11.3% respectively, and + 2.2/+1.6pcts respectively compared with the same period last year, the increasing trend of share under the background of channel reform and holding high is good, and the superposition of 618 greatly promotes the release of demand, the company is expected to usher in a revenue inflection point in 2023Q2.
The inventory turnover capacity has been improved, and the company's cash flow quality has performed well: as of March 31, 2023, the company's inventory is 100 million yuan (- 23.6%), and the inventory turnover days are 106.9 days (- 1.9 days). The commissioning of the new factory led to the reduction of turnover costs and the improvement of production efficiency. Cash flow:
The net cash flow generated by 2023Q1's operating activities was 41 million yuan, + 57.7% compared with the same period last year, accounting for 17.2% of the income, an increase of 6.9% over the same period last year.
Risk tips: rising prices of raw materials, consumer demand less than expected, channel expansion is not as expected risk.