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中金:维持中教控股(00839)“跑赢行业”评级 目标价降至9.5港元

CICC: Maintains China Education Holdings' (00839) “Outperform the Industry” rating target price to HK$9.5

Zhitong Finance ·  May 5, 2023 09:50

The Zhitong Finance App learned that CICC released a research report stating that it maintained the “outperform the industry” rating of China Education Holdings (00839), that the interim results for fiscal year 2023 were in line with expectations, and announced a mid-term dividend of about 418 million yuan (HK$18.58 per share) for fiscal year 2023. Taking into account the downturn in industry valuation centers, the target price was lowered by 10% to HK$9.5. The bank said that considering that the pace of enrollment of new students has yet to be fixed, it lowered the company's revenue forecast for the 2023/24 fiscal year by 4%/3% to 5.47 billion yuan/6.17 billion yuan; considering cost control optimization, the adjusted net profit forecast for the 2023/24 fiscal year was raised by 3%/5% to 21.38 billion yuan.

According to the report, the performance of the company's higher education sector is steady, and the number of students is expected to increase by 20% throughout the year. The company's mid-fiscal year 2023 revenue increased 18% year over year, with the number of students enrolled increasing 10% year over year to 340,000. By sector, in the first half of fiscal year 2023, the revenue of the higher education sector increased 21% year on year to 2.35 billion yuan, accounting for 85% of the revenue ratio, mainly due to the increase in the number of students enrolled (15% year-on-year increase to 287,000) and the increase in average student income; the middle vocational sector's revenue accounted for 12%, with income falling 3% year on year, mainly due to a decrease of more than 9% in the number of new students; the international sector accounted for 4% of revenue, with revenue rising 45% year on year, mainly due to the rapid growth rate of new students after Australian entry restrictions were lifted in February 2022 (mainly contributed by King Australia College). Management expects the number of students in the higher education sector to increase 20% year-on-year in the 23/24 school year, and the corresponding number of new students is expected to increase by more than 15%; among them, Zhaoqing schools in the Greater Bay Area are expected to exceed 12,000 students this year.The bank predicts that the company's revenue will increase 15% year-on-year to 5.47 billion yuan in fiscal year 2023. Among them, the increase in the number of students enrolled and the increase in tuition and accommodation fees are expected to contribute 10% and 5% year-on-year increases, respectively.

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