Key investment points: The company's wealth management transformation has achieved remarkable results, and financial products sold on behalf of the company account for a high proportion of revenue.
The asset management business has distinct characteristics, and active management and public placement transformation have advantages. There was a reversal in proprietary business in the first quarter. The reasonable value range is 8.52-9.23 yuan, maintaining the “superior market” rating.
[Event] CaiTong Securities announced results for the first quarter of 2022 and 2023: the company achieved operating income of 4.83 billion yuan in 2022, -24.7% year on year; net profit of 1.52 billion yuan, -40.9% year on year; corresponding to EPS of 0.34 yuan, ROE of 5.0%. The fourth quarter achieved revenue of 1.28 billion yuan, or -28.8% year on year. Guimu's net profit was 440 million yuan, or -54.9% year-on-year. The first quarter of 2023 achieved operating income of 1.79 billion yuan, +174.2% year on year; net profit of 490 million yuan, +214.5% year on year; corresponding to EPS of 0.11 yuan and ROE of 1.5%.
Market trading volume declined, affecting the company's brokerage revenue. The company's brokerage revenue in 2022 was 1.18 billion yuan, -13.1% year on year. The average daily stock trading volume of the entire market was 103 billion yuan, -9.3% year on year. The company sold financial products on behalf of 178 million yuan, or -22.7% year-on-year, accounting for 15.08% of brokerage revenue. The volume of financial products sold on behalf of the company was 88.4 billion yuan, -3.9% year on year. The total market balance of the two loans was 15404 billion yuan, -16% compared to the beginning of the year. The company's brokerage revenue in the first quarter of 2023 was 275 million yuan, -14.3% year on year. The average daily stock trading volume of the entire market was 963.3 billion yuan, -10.5% year on year. The total market balance of two loans was 1606.7 billion yuan, +4% compared to the beginning of the year.
Equity underwriting performed well in the first quarter of 2023. The company's investment banking business revenue in 2022 was 450 million yuan, -29.9% year on year. The underwriting scale of the equity business was -52.5% compared to the same period last year, and the underwriting scale of the bond business was +3.6% compared to the same period last year. Shareholders' underwriting scale was 3.51 billion yuan, ranking 44th; of these, 4 IPOs raised 900 million yuan; 4 were refinanced, with an underwriting scale of 2.6 billion yuan. The underwriting scale of bond owners was 69.4 billion yuan, ranking 25th; among them, the underwriting scale of corporate bonds, corporate bonds, and financial bonds was 50.8 billion yuan, 12.4 billion yuan, and 5.6 billion yuan respectively. Investment banking revenue for the first quarter of 2023 was 150 million yuan, +101.9% year on year. The underwriting scale of the equity business was +619.0% compared to the same period last year, and the underwriting scale of the bond business was +209.2% compared to the same period last year. Shareholders' underwriting scale was 1.94 billion yuan, ranking 25th; among them, 1 IPO raised 200 million yuan; 2 were refinanced, with an underwriting scale of 1.8 billion yuan. 4) The underwriting scale of principal bonds was 34.8 billion yuan, ranking 20th; among them, the underwriting scale of corporate bonds, corporate bonds, and financial bonds was 24.6 billion yuan, 4.4 billion yuan, and 5.9 billion yuan respectively. There are 7 IPO reserve projects, ranking 18th, including 2 main boards in 2 markets and 5 on the GEM board
The scale of asset management continues to rise, and the transformation of public placement has achieved remarkable results. The company's asset management business revenue in 2022 was 1.46 billion yuan, +5.4% year on year. The asset management scale was 246.1 billion yuan, +10.5% over the same period last year, and the scale of public placement management exceeded 100 billion yuan, ranking third among brokerage asset management. Asset management revenue for the first quarter of 2023 was 3.1 billion yuan, -10.7% year on year.
There was a sharp reversal in independent business performance in 2023. The company's investment income in 2022 (including fair value) was 150 million yuan, -88.1% year on year; investment income (including fair value) for the fourth quarter was 140 million yuan, -70.7% year on year. Investment income (including fair value) for the first quarter of 2023 was 710,000 million yuan, with a loss of 450 million yuan in the same period last year. The equity market picked up in the first quarter, and Wandequan A rose 6.5%.
Investment advice: We expect the company's EPS to be 0.50/0.56/0.61 yuan for 2023-25E and 7.26/7.67/8.13 respectively for BVPS. We gave it 1.2-1.3x P/B in 2023, corresponding to a reasonable value range of 8.52-9.23 yuan, maintaining the “superior market” rating.
Risk warning: Trading volume continues to decline, and investment returns continue to decline due to increased volatility in the equity market.