Performance overview: In 23Q1, the company achieved revenue/net profit of 6.48/2.16 billion yuan, YOY +35.7%/+65.6%, respectively; the weighted average ROE was 1.87%, +0.65pct over the previous year, and the performance growth rate was in line with expectations. Brokers/investment banks/asset management/credit/proprietary income (excluding other business income) contributed 22.5%/1.6%/32.5%/14.6%/22.9%, respectively.
The improvement of proprietary business has driven a recovery in the company's performance. 23Q1 The company's own revenue was 1,469 million yuan, an increase of 2,605 million yuan over the same period in '22. Net revenue from self-operated business in 22Q1/Q2/Q3/Q4 was -11.4/17.9/-7.0/1.31 billion yuan respectively. Since the fourth quarter of last year, the company's own investment has improved marginally. At the end of the period, the company's financial investment was 352.3 billion yuan, +16.3% compared to the end of last year, mainly due to the increase in the company's transactional financial assets (the scale of investments such as end-of-period bonds and funds increased).
The scale of credit business declined, and revenue declined. In 23Q1, the company's net interest income was 940 million yuan, -5.4% year on year. Interest expenses increased due to the increase in the company's leverage ratio. At the end of the period, the company raised 86.1 billion yuan of capital, an increase of 4% over the end of last year and a decrease of 2.7% over the same period last year.
Net income from fees and commissions declined due to market fluctuations. 23Q1 The company's net revenue from fees and commissions was $3.72 billion, -12.6% year on year. 1) Among them, brokerage revenue was 1,447 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12.5%. The average daily stock turnover of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets during the same period was 991.7 billion yuan, -9.2% year on year. In '22, the company's stock base turnover was 19.9 trillion yuan, YOY -6.6%, and its market share increased by 0.16pct to 4.01%. At the end of the first quarter, the company's share+hybrid fund held 83.2 billion yuan, ranking third among brokerage firms. 2) The net revenue of the company's asset management business was 2.09 billion yuan, -10.8% year on year, which is the company's largest source of revenue. If the market recovers later, the company's asset management business revenue is expected to increase. 3) The investment banking business is still recovering. The company's investment banking business revenue in the first quarter was 100 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 32.7%.
Investment advice: The company's asset management advantage is stable, and the investment banking business continues to recover. We forecast the growth rate of the company's net profit to the mother in 23-25 +29.8%/+18.5%/+13.3%. The current stock price corresponds to 0.96 times PB in 2023, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk warning: risk of market fluctuations, business risk, risk of declining market activity.