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凯伦股份(300715):Q1业绩超预期 期待渠道+高分子扩张

Karen Co., Ltd. (300715): Q1 Performance Exceeds Expectations Channel+Polymer Expansion

興業證券 ·  May 2, 2023 00:00  · Researches

The company released its annual report: in 2022, the company achieved total operating revenue of 2,128 million yuan, -17.72% year on year; realized net profit of 159 million yuan, -321.09% year on year. Among them, Q4 achieved operating income of 595 million yuan, or -10.41% year on year; net profit returned to the mother was -181 million yuan, an increase of -70.07% over the previous year. The company disclosed the first quarter report of 2023. Revenue was 507 million yuan, +55.72% year on year, and net profit returned to the mother was 34 million yuan, +300.26% year on year; net profit returned to the mother after deduction was 0.03 million yuan, +34.04% year on year.

In 2022, the company achieved a total revenue of 2,128 billion yuan, or -17.72% year on year, mainly due to the macroeconomic environment and the slowdown in real estate growth. The first quarter of 2023 achieved revenue of 507 million yuan, +55.72% over the same period last year. This was mainly due to the increase in sales scale due to the company's increased market development and marketing investment during the reporting period. The company achieved revenue of 1,348, 5.19, 2.13 and 47 million yuan respectively for waterproof membranes, waterproof coatings, waterproof construction, and others, with year-on-year changes of -24.60%, -9.94%, +18.27%, and +14.65%, respectively.

The company achieved a comprehensive gross profit margin of 19.49% in 2022, compared to -10.86pct last year, mainly due to the continued high prices of the company's upstream raw materials. By product, the gross margins of the company's waterproof membranes and waterproof coatings were 20.37% and 19.43% respectively, with year-on-year changes of -14.10 pct and +2.01pct respectively.

The company achieved a net sales interest rate of -7.58% in 2022, compared to -10.34pct last year, mainly due to the sharp rise in raw material prices and the preparation of bad debts from some customers; the expense ratio for the period was 21.52%, compared to +3.30pct over the same period. The sales expense ratio was 7.90%, up 0.29pct from the previous year; the management expense ratio was 6.40%, up 1.86pct from the previous year; the R&D expense ratio was 6.14%, up 0.77pct from the previous year; and the financial expense ratio was 1.08%, up 0.37pct from the previous year.

The company's net operating cash flow in 2022 was 46 million yuan, +113.66% year on year; net operating cash flow per share was 0.12 yuan, an increase of 1.0 yuan/share over last year. In terms of cash flow, from the perspective of payout ratio, the company's payout ratio in 2022 was 105.22% and 117.78% respectively, up +43.58 and +22.71 percentage points from the same period last year. There is a significant difference between net cash flow and net profit from operating activities. This is mainly due to increased efforts to collect accounts receivable repayment and increase the repayment ratio.

Profit forecast and rating: We adjusted the profit forecast. The company's net profit for 2023-2025 is estimated to be 122 million yuan, 151 million yuan, and 185 million yuan respectively. The PE corresponding to the closing price on April 28 was 45.8, 36.9, and 30.3x respectively, maintaining the “increase in holdings” rating.

Risk warning: demand in the real estate market declines; capacity expansion falls short of expectations; macroeconomic fluctuations

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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