Incidents:
Fosun Pharmaceutical released its report for the first quarter of 2023. It achieved revenue of 10.871 million yuan in the first quarter, an increase of 4.68% over the previous year, achieved net profit of 987 million yuan, an increase of 116.17% over the previous year, and achieved net profit of 919 million after deducting non-return mother's net profit of 919 million, an increase of 14.78% over the previous year. The performance was in line with expectations.
Performance is in line with expectations, and new products are growing rapidly after new products
The company's net profit and net profit returned to the mother increased rapidly year-on-year in the first quarter. The first was due to increased revenue from new and sub-new products, including increased revenue from Hans's (PD-1), Han Qu You (Quetuzhu), small molecules of avatripopa, and Azivudine. Han Qu Yu sold 539 million yuan in the first quarter (+66.7% year on year), Hans achieved revenue of 250 million yuan, and monthly sales in March exceeded 100 million yuan. Second, the change in fair value in the current period was -147 million (-1,358 million in Q1 2022), and the change in fair value narrowed after the sale of BioNTech's shares.
Multiple research and development of oncology, vaccines, and medicine and aesthetics is expected to deliver results
Fosun Pharmaceutical's pipeline layout for oncology, vaccines, medical aesthetics, etc. is expected to be realized. Hans form added a broad range of indications for small cell lung cancer. It was the first PD-1 drug approved for this indication in the world. Its marketing license application was accepted in the European Union; the jointly developed Keplar tablets were marketed domestically. Han Quyou's US marketing license application was accepted by the US FDA, and the domestic phase III clinical enrollment of the 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine was completed; the ADC drug FS-1502 initiated phase III clinical breast cancer in China, and the domestic marketing registration application for RT002 (botulinum toxin) for moderate to severe frowns was accepted. Relying on self-research and project introduction, Fosun Pharmaceutical has a rich product range.
Profit Forecasts, Valuations, and Ratings
We expect the company's revenue for 2023-25 to be 480.82/540.80/60446 billion (the original forecast for 2023/24 was 52,044/58421 billion respectively), the corresponding growth rate was 9.40%/12.47%/11.77%, respectively, and the net profit of the mother was 51.43/5939/6.809 billion respectively (the original forecast for 2023/24 was 58.34/6.619 billion respectively). The corresponding growth rate was 3.772/15.48%/14.66%, respectively, EPS was 85% 1.92/2.22/2.55 yuan/share, with a three-year CAGR of 22.20%. In view of the company's development and investment in two-wheel drive, with reference to comparable company valuations, we gave the company 20 times PE in 2023, with a target price of 38.50 yuan, maintaining the “increase in holdings” rating.
Risk warning: sales of innovative drugs fall short of expectations; risk of fluctuations in sales of public health-related products