Karen shares 2022 revenue of 2.128 billion yuan, with a decrease of 17.7%; return to the mother net profit of-159 million yuan, from profit to loss over the same period last year; EPS-0.42 yuan. 2023Q1's revenue was 507 million yuan, an increase of 55.7%, while the net profit returned to its mother was 34 million yuan, an increase of 300.3%. In the future, the company will be based on polymer materials, continue to improve cash flow, strengthen cooperation with central enterprises, and continue to expand dealer channels. Maintain the company's overweight rating.
Support the main points of rating
23Q1 performance increased significantly: in 2022, the company achieved revenue of 2.128 billion yuan, with a decrease of 17.7%; return to the mother net profit of-159 million yuan, from profit to loss compared with the same period last year; EPS-0.42 yuan. Of this total, 22Q4 achieved a revenue of 595 million yuan, a decrease of 10.4%, and a net profit of-181 million yuan, an increase of 70.1% over the same period last year. 2023Q1's revenue was 507 million yuan, a sharp increase of 55.7% over the same period last year, while the net profit returned to its mother was 34 million yuan, an increase of 300.3%. 2023Q1 achieved significant growth in its performance.
23Q1 gross profit margin with month-on-month average company profitability has been enhanced: 2022 company gross profit margin of 19.49%, the same minus 10.85 pct; home net profit rate of-7.47%, with minus 10.25pct. 2023Q1's gross profit margin is 22.68%, with an increase of 2.14pct, an increase of 7.42pct compared with 22Q4, and a net profit rate of 6.78%, with an increase of 4.14pct. The net operating cash flow of the company in 2022 was 46 million yuan, an increase of 113.7%. The net operating cash flow of 23Q1 was 16 million yuan, which changed from net outflow to net inflow compared with the same period last year.
23Q1 demand is picking up, but the cost of raw materials is still high. The cumulative growth rate of 2023Q1 infrastructure investment is more than 10%, construction projects have started one after another, and the demand for waterproof materials has warmed up. But the price of asphalt is still higher than the same period last year, and there is still some pressure on the cost side of the company. The average settlement price of 2023Q1 asphalt futures is 3779.5 yuan / ton, with an increase of 132.5 yuan / ton, resulting in a rise in the purchase price of asphalt and a decline in gross profit margin compared with the same period last year.
Based on polymer waterproof materials, continuously improve cash flow. The company has established the core strategy of polymer waterproof materials, constantly expanding the application scene of polymer materials, and increasing the proportion of polymer revenue; the company will continue to promote the "two-wheel drive" strategy of collection and channels; strengthen cooperation with central enterprises and urban investment enterprises.
The company will also make every effort to expand dealer channels and strive to cover the country's major prefecture-level cities.
Valuation
The company's performance fell sharply in the first quarter, and we adjusted our profit forecast accordingly. It is estimated that the income of the company from 2023 to 2025 is 28.5,35.8,4.28 billion yuan, the net profit of returning to the mother is 1.5,2.3,280 million yuan respectively, and the EPS is 0.40,0.59,0.74 yuan respectively. Maintain the company's overweight rating.
Main risks faced by rating
The price of raw materials has risen sharply, the demand expansion is less than expected, and the turnover of accounts receivable is difficult.