移动阅读拓展衍生业务使得销售毛利率回落，整体费用率维持稳健2022 公司销售毛利率同比下降4.55pct 至10.42%，主因移动阅读衍生业务拓展导致成本提升，22 年移动阅读业务毛利率同比下滑15.16pct 至12.29%。公司22 年整体费用率保持稳健，22 年期间费用率同比增加0.34pct至6.11%，其中营销/管理/研发/财务费用率分别变动-0.29/-0.18/+0.03/+0.78pct 至0.77%/1.84%/1.49%/2.01%，财务费用率提升主要因对外融资规模扩大。2022 年归母净利率同降3.32pct 至3.44%。Net profit returned to the mother fell by 49.74% in '22, reversing losses month-on-month in 23Q1 and maintaining “buying”
The company achieved revenue of 3,556 million yuan in 2022, a slight decrease of 1.25% over the previous year; achieved net profit of 122 million yuan, a decrease of 49.74%; net profit returned to the mother after deduction was 104 million yuan, down 53.88% from the same period. The company achieved revenue of 386 million yuan in 23Q1 (yoy -70.01%, qoq +24.38%), achieved net profit of 17 million yuan (yoy -84.68%, reversal of loss), and net profit of 19 million yuan after deducting non-return to the mother (yoy -83.55%, reversal of loss on a month-on-month basis). Considering that the company's 23Q1 performance is still under pressure, the company's business revenue and gross margin forecasts were lowered, 23-24 was adjusted, and the 25-year net profit forecast returned to the mother was added to $2888/331/375 million. Comparable to the company Wind in '23, the average PE was expected to be 17X. Considering the company's forward-looking layout such as the metaverse and AIGC, 23E 20X PE was given with a target price of 41.40 yuan, maintaining the “buy” rating.
The decline in operators' smart home business demand affected short-term revenue. Focus on demand recovery and 5G business expansion. Driven by “double gigabit” network construction, the company's smart home and 5G communication services continued to develop. However, due to operator inventory removal and the epidemic, demand for smart home business operators of 22Q4 and 23Q1 companies shrunk markedly. 22Q4/23Q1 achieved revenue of 310/386 million yuan respectively, down 71.47%/70.01% year-on-year respectively, down 71.47%/70.01% year-on-month, respectively. According to the annual report, as of the end of '22, Shenzhen Zhaoneng had unexecuted orders of about 8.467 billion yuan. We are concerned about the subsequent recovery in demand for smart home business and the pace of order execution. The 5G communication business continues to expand. The revenue of 5G antenna products increased nearly tenfold to 262 million yuan in '22. By April '23, the total amount of winning bids for the company's 5G communication business was about 1,033 million yuan (tax included), which may have become a new driving force for the company's subsequent growth. The mobile reading business as a whole remained stable.
The mobile reading derivative business expansion led to a decline in gross sales margin. The overall expense ratio remained steady. In 2022, the company's gross sales margin fell 4.55 pct to 10.42% year on year. Mainly due to cost increases caused by the expansion of the mobile reading derivative business, the gross margin of the mobile reading business fell 15.16 pct to 12.29% year on year in '22. The company's overall expense ratio remained steady in '22. The expense ratio increased by 0.34 pct to 6.11% year-on-year. Among them, the marketing/management/R&D/finance expense ratio changed -0.29/-0.18/+0.03/+0.78pct to 0.77%/1.84%/1.49%/2.01%. The increase in financial expense ratio was mainly due to an increase in the scale of foreign financing. The net interest rate to the mother fell 3.32pct to 3.44% in 2022.
Actively explore the application of AIGC in the field of digital reading and maintain the “buy” rating According to the annual report, the company will actively explore the application of AIGC in the field of digital reading in 23, including but not limited to AIGC assisted creation and automatic text generation. At the same time, it will explore fields such as text translation, illustration, audio novels, and intelligent interpretation of novels combined with virtual digital people to further reduce costs and enhance the interest of the work. We adjusted the net profit forecast for 23-25 to 2.88/331/375 million yuan (previous value of 405/464 million yuan in 23/24). Comparable with the company Wind in '22, the average PE was 17X. Considering the company's forward-looking layout such as the metaverse and AIGC, we gave 23E 20XPE with a target price of 41.40 yuan (previous value of 44.28 yuan) to maintain “buying”.
Risk warning: The recovery in operator demand fell short of expectations, and new business development & exploration fell short of expectations.
