Some revenue recognition methods were adjusted, and profit continued to rise high in line with the forecast, maintaining the “buy” rating of Guolian Co., Ltd. achieved revenue of 40.269 billion yuan in '22, an increase of 8.16%. The main reason was that the company adjusted some transactions to the net amount method to recognize revenue. If the original calculation was about 74.4 billion yuan, an increase of 97%; net profit of the mother was 1,126 million yuan, an increase of 94.63%; after deducting non-net profit of 1,054 million yuan, the same increase of 98.49%.
In 23Q1, the company achieved net profit/net profit after deducting non-net profit of 256/253 million yuan respectively, an increase of 65.02%/74.66%. The profit side is basically in line with the performance forecast. Consider maintaining a relatively rapid growth rate in 23Q1. We made a slight increase of 23/24 and added a 25-year forecast. The net profit returned to the mother is expected to be 17.36/26.44/3.850 billion yuan. Considering that comparable companies have different business development priorities, there is a big difference in valuations. We switched to PE valuation based on the company's own historical valuation level and future profit growth expectations. We gave the company 23-year PE 20X, the company's three-year PE average minus 1.8 standard deviation. The valuation discount was mainly due to considering the company's high profit base. The growth rate has slowed down from history. The corresponding target price is 69.60 yuan, maintaining “buying”.
Due to strict and prudent principles, the net amount method used the net amount method to confirm revenue of 577 million yuan of 577 million yuan. There is a big difference between the 22-year performance forecast disclosed earlier (estimated to achieve operating income of 72.65 billion to 73.4 billion yuan in '22). Mainly because the audit report in '22 changed part of the company's revenue from the full amount method to the net amount method, the transaction amount involved was 33.695 billion yuan, and the corresponding net amount method confirmed operating income of 577 million yuan. Net profit attributable to the company increased by 94.63%/65.02% respectively in '22 and 23Q1. The rapid growth in performance was still mainly driven by the online commodity trading business. Specifically, after the revenue recognition method was adjusted, the company's paint chemical/hygiene products/glass/paper/fertiliser/grain and oil industry accounted for 49.91%/23.82%/5.37%/1.31%/5.24%/13.17%, respectively.
Implement the “platform, technology, and data” industry Internet development strategy, explore the value of industrial data companies based on a strategic system based on “platform services, technology driven, and data support”, and continue to promote the construction of a diversified platform service system. The three-year 100 cloud factory strategy has been continuously implemented, and the construction of digital factories is further promoted on this basis. According to the annual report, in addition to actively promoting the comprehensive service capabilities of multiple platforms and the League of Nations Resource Network, the subsequent company will also focus on promoting the digital technology business of the League of Nations Cloud and continuously building and improving the big data service system. According to the official website of the Beijing Digital Research Institute, Guolian Co., Ltd. officially joined the Beijing International Big Data Exchange in March 23 and became its affiliate unit. The company has accumulated a large amount of data on the transaction side, supply chain side, and production side in its historical business development, and is expected to rely on Beishu to accelerate the implementation of big data business.
In '22, cash of $2.27 was distributed for every 10 shares and increased by 4.5 shares to maintain “buying”
Based on the construction of a digital ecosystem, the company is implementing the industrial Internet strategy. The implementation of data services, etc. is expected to accelerate, and diversification of services can be expected. According to the annual report, the company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 2.27 yuan for every 10 shares to all shareholders, with a total cash dividend of 113 million yuan; it plans to transfer 4.5 shares for every 10 shares. We expect to achieve net profit of 1,736/26.44/3.850 billion yuan to the mother in 23-25, giving the company PE 20X in 23, the corresponding target price of 69.60 yuan (previous value of 157.74 yuan, based on 1.2X 22E PEG) to maintain “buying”.
Risk warning: vertical platform expansion falls short of expectations, customer conversion falls short of expectations, risks related to the epidemic, etc.