维持“增持” 评级，维持目标价18.32元/股，对应2023年13.37xPE、1.19xPB。公司2023 年一季度营业收入/归母净利润64.77/21.57 亿元，同比+35.69%/+65.58%；加权平均ROE 同比+0.65pct 至1.87%，业绩符合预期。我们维持公司盈利预期为23-25 年EPS 1.37/1.55/1.76 元。Introduction to this report:
The market recovery led to net income from the investment business turning a loss into a profit year over year, and overall performance improved dramatically; the company's outstanding asset management expertise and remarkable brand advantage will better meet residents' growing wealth management needs and develop beyond expectations.
Key points of investment:
Maintain the “increase in holdings” rating and maintain the target price of 18.32 yuan/share, corresponding to 13.37xPE and 1.19xPb in 2023. The company's operating revenue/net profit of the first quarter of 2023 was 6477/2,157 billion yuan, +35.69%/+65.58% year on year; the weighted average ROE was +0.65pct to 1.87% year-on-year, and the performance was in line with expectations. We maintain the company's profit forecast at $1.37/1.55/1.76 EPS for 23-25.
Considering the company's outstanding asset management business specialization capabilities and outstanding brand, it is expected to better grasp the dividend of residents' wealth management demand growth, maintain a target price of 18.32 yuan/share, corresponding to 13.37xP/E and 1.19xPb in 2023, and maintain the “increase in holdings” rating.
The recovery in the market led to net income from the investment business turning a loss into a profit year over year, and the company's overall performance improved dramatically. 1) 2023Q1, the net income of the company's investment business improved sharply year-on-year, from a loss of 1,062 million yuan to a profit of 1,717 million yuan in Q1 2022, contributing 130.81% of the total increase in adjusted revenue (operating income - other business costs), and the company's overall performance rebounded sharply; 2) The sharp improvement in net income from the investment business was mainly due to the increase in return on investment under the influence of market recovery. The return on 2023Q1 investment was +0.94pct to 0.52% year-on-year, changing from negative to positive; at the same time, the scale of transactional financial assets increased +32.76 month-on-month % reached 209.499 billion yuan, driving the scale of financial assets +16.33% month-on-month to 352,257 billion yuan, further increasing the rebound.
The company has outstanding asset management expertise and remarkable brand advantages. It is expected that it will better meet the growing wealth management needs of residents and achieve development that exceeds expectations. The company's asset management business specialization capabilities lead the industry. The three fields of asset management, public fund management, and private equity fund management go hand in hand. The brand advantage is remarkable, and the business spans home and abroad. It is expected that it will better meet the steady growth in residents' wealth management needs in the context of market recovery, thus driving the company's overall business to develop beyond expectations.
Catalyst: Residents' demand for wealth management is growing at an accelerated pace.
Risk warning: The equity market has declined sharply.
