大力推进产能建设，创新药投放，未来成长可期。2023 年4 月，公司公告建设5000 吨/年烯草酮原药项目，巩固优势产品地位。此外，辽宁三期项目已于2022 年12 月进入试生产阶段，五期项目预计将于2023 年上半年投产，六期项目也正在筹划中，新产能释放将为公司带来新动力。公司坚持技术创新，正稳步推进创制药吡唑喹草酯、苯丙草酮的登记工作，并将对更多新化合物进行试验筛选、启动登记。The company released its 2022 annual report and the first quarter report of 2023. The company achieved revenue of 3.126 billion yuan in 2022, an increase of 41.92% over the previous year, and Guimu's net profit of 381 million yuan, an increase of 114.90% over the previous year. Among them, Q4 achieved revenue of 656 million yuan, a decrease of 18.66% over the previous month, and Guimo's net profit of 56 million yuan, a decrease of 55.53% over the previous year. Q1 2023 achieved revenue of 548 million yuan, down 2.39% year on year, down 16.47% month on month, and Guimu's net profit was 44 million yuan, down 41.36% year on year and 21.30% month on month.
Industry sentiment has declined, and short-term performance is under pressure. The company's revenue reached the best level in history in 2022. Its growth was mainly due to a sharp rise in the volume and price of enoxazone, methicillin, and herbal tobacco products. After the third quarter of 2022, due to high inventories, overseas pesticide demand declined sharply, leading to a decline in the pesticide industry boom. According to the operating data announced by the company, the 2022Q4 enoxazone and enoylmorpholine series products performed brilliantly, with average prices of 24.24 and 117,700 yuan/ton respectively, up 62.19% and 35.07%, respectively, and up 48.69% and 0.70% respectively over the previous year. We think it is a change brought about by product restructuring. The average price of the original drug is still downward; while the average prices of products in the series such as acomicola tobacco, anticorubicin, isoxazone and other series products were 24.13, 26.29, 704 million yuan/ton, respectively, down 20.89%, 8.89% and 8.89%, respectively. 40.77%, down 5.61%, 3.82%, and 34.58%, respectively, from the previous year.
The average prices of 2023Q1 enoxazone, imicloxacin, anacloxacin, and enoylmorpholine series products decreased by 18.99%, 24.45%, 22.69%, 11.03%, and 9.84%, respectively, over the same period last year.
With vigorous promotion of production capacity and introduction of innovative drugs, future growth can be expected. In April 2023, the company announced the construction of a 5,000 tons/year enoxolone original drug project to strengthen its position as an advantageous product. Furthermore, the third phase of the Liaoning project entered the trial production stage in December 2022, the fifth phase project is expected to be put into operation in the first half of 2023, and the sixth phase project is also being planned. The release of new production capacity will bring new impetus to the company. The company insists on technological innovation, is steadily advancing the registration of the creative pharmaceuticals pyrazole quinolate and phenproxone, and will test, screen, and start registration of more new compounds.
Adjust profit forecasts to maintain the “buy” rating. Considering the decline in the pesticide industry sentiment since the second half of 2022, we adjusted our profit forecast. The company's revenue for 2023-2025 was 2,711, 37.81, and 4.706 billion yuan respectively (previously 3,525 million yuan and 4,305 million yuan, plus 2025 forecast), and the return mother's net profit was 273, 381, and 501 million yuan respectively (previously 566 million yuan and 706 million yuan, plus 2025 forecast). The corresponding PE was 12X/9X/7X, respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk warning: product prices are falling, project launch falls short of expectations
