Main points of investment

Q1 had a stable performance in 2023, with a gross profit margin of 14.0%, enhanced profitability and enhanced revenue-return net profit: the company's 23Q1 realized revenue of 3.721 billion yuan, + 0.2% year-on-year; the corresponding return net profit / deduction non-net profit was respectively RMB 180 million, an increase of 0.7% and 7.1% over the same period last year, and the overall performance maintained stability. Gross profit margin:

23Q1 gross profit margin recorded 14.0%, year-on-year / month-on-month + 0.7/+1.2pct, the company's profitability improved.

The expense rate has increased slightly, the cash flow has improved, and the income-to-cash ratio has increased.

1) expense rate: the expense rate during the 23Q1 period is 9.6%, which is higher than that of the previous year / month-on-month period by 1.1pct. Split look: 23Q1 sales / management / finance / R & D expense rate 1.18% 3.71% 0.37% Accord 4.34%, compared with 22Q1 + 0.2/+0.6/-0.2/+0.4pct, management and R & D expense rate increased more. It is speculated that the increase in R & D expenses is mainly due to the company's strategic orientation of "innovation-driven steel structure construction technology platform company" and continue to promote independent technological innovation and research and development. The increase in administrative expenses may be due to the increase in depreciation, amortization and office expenses.

2) Cash flow: the net operating cash flow of the company's 23Q1 is-196 million yuan, and the cash flow inflow is 88 million yuan more than that of the same period last year, and the cash flow has improved significantly; the corresponding cash-to-cash ratio of 1.27 (1.21pi 22Q4 in the same period last year is 0.85), which is higher than the same period last year.

Q1 newly signed orders increased by 23% and 33% year-on-year / month-on-month increase of 23% and 33%. The newly signed contract value of 23Q1 was 5.5 billion yuan, up 23.4% and 32.9% year-on-year / month-on-month. In terms of steel structure sales, the company's 23Q1 achieved steel structure sales of 252000 tons, an increase of 15.7% over the same period last year. After the resumption of production, the overall business acceptance of the company accelerated, and the business development showed a high bearing.

Plate high growth is expected, BIPV business advantage is expected to thicken the overall performance 1) industry end: short-term prefabricated steel structure demand rebounds, medium-and long-term policy continues to increase, superimposed "double carbon" strategic background, steel structure plate high growth can be expected.

2) the company side: on the one hand, the company's steel structure main business development model is dominant, the EPC project and "patent licensing" business, with the triple competitive advantages of intelligent manufacturing, building information (BIM+IoT) research and development, and comprehensive qualifications, it is expected to achieve a new breakthrough in order volume and profitability. On the other hand, the company seizes the development opportunity of dual-carbon policy Dongfeng and building carbon reduction, with the advantages of distributed photovoltaic business, effectively strengthen the differential competitiveness of the main industry, and is expected to enhance the overall business profitability in the future. In the medium and long term, under the "double carbon" strategy, the company is expected to speed up the business process of photovoltaic building integration and accelerate the transformation into a green and low-carbon building integrated service provider by virtue of distributed photovoltaic EPC engineering technology and channel advantages.

Profit forecast and valuation

It is estimated that the company will achieve operating income of 185.09, 216.54 and 25.102 billion yuan in 2023-2025, an increase of 18.51%, 16.99% and 15.92% over the same period last year, and a net profit of 8.57,10.26 and 1.227 billion yuan, an increase of 21.36%, 19.79% and 19.58% over the same period last year, corresponding to PE 9.35,7.80,6.53 times. Maintain a "buy" rating.

Risk hint

The permeability of steel structure increases faster than expected; the price of steel fluctuates; the growth rate of solid investment is not as fast as expected.