Event: the company released its 2022 report and its first quarterly report in 2023. In 2022, the company achieved revenue of 4.868 billion yuan, an increase of 19.14% over the same period last year, and a net profit of 302 million yuan, an increase of 107.04% over the same period last year. X ROE (weighted) was 9.59%, an increase of 4.02 pct. 2023Q1 achieved an operating income of 1.327 billion yuan, an increase of 28.01% over the same period last year, and a net profit of 53.37 million yuan, an increase of 61.49% over the same period last year.
Event comments:
Component expansion year, optimistic about the company's 2023 performance growth. Silicon price is now less than 200000 yuan / ton, downstream profit improvement to promote component expansion, in the second half of 2022, Tongwei announced cumulative expansion of 50GW component production capacity, CNC announced expansion of 16GW component capacity, Jingao science and technology plans to expand production capacity of 30GW + components in 2023, Jingke announced expansion of 24GW component capacity, we judge that industry expansion in 2023 will maintain a high growth rate. As of March 31, 2023, the company's contract liabilities were 2.514 billion yuan, an increase of 52.94 percent over the previous month. As of December 31, 2022, the company's photovoltaic sector had orders of 5.444 billion yuan, an increase of 45.56% over the same period last year. According to the work report of the company's board of directors in 2022, the company's sales revenue target is 58-6.5 billion yuan in 2023.
The market share of the company's component assembly line business is more than 50%, and we believe that the expansion of component production will strongly promote the company's performance growth.
With the increase of gross profit margin, the expense rate has decreased, and profitability has improved significantly. In 2022, the company's net sales profit rate was 6.74%, an increase of 3.83 pct over the same period last year, of which the gross profit margin increased by 1.84 pct and the expense rate decreased by 1.49 pct. In 2022, the gross profit margin of the company is 21.47%. According to the product type, the gross profit margin of photovoltaic automation production line / packaging automation production line is 23.72% / 22.88% respectively, which is 1.16 pct / 3.03pct higher than the same period last year. In 2022, the company's sales expense rate / management expense rate / R & D expense rate / financial expense rate was 3.31% / 4.91% / 5.46 /-0.61 respectively, with changes in-0.18pct /-0.25pct / 0.71pct /-1.77pct respectively.
The perovskite equipment has been expanded from a single machine to provide a whole line solution. 2022 China report shows that the company's perovskite equipment business provides PVD equipment and evaporation equipment. The 2022 annual report shows that the company provides overall perovskite and cascade battery module solutions, including GW perovskite production equipment, MW perovskite high efficiency battery manufacturing solution, perovskite / cascade battery test line and perovskite assembly automatic packaging line, in which GW perovskite production equipment can meet the production requirements of large perovskite batteries with length (2000-2300mm) × width (1000-1200mm).
The company has completed the construction of a complete large area single junction perovskite battery test line, crystal silicon perovskite laminated battery test line. At present, Polar Optic Energy has started the construction of GW perovskite production line, and we believe that the acceleration of perovskite industrialization is expected to help the company open the second growth curve.
Photovoltaic battery equipment business is expected to usher in the volume, HJT battery new copper plating equipment. According to our statistics, the current industry TOPCon capacity planning exceeds 450GW HJT battery capacity planning over 230GW. In the TOPCon route, the company can provide PECVD&PVD coating equipment, cashmere and cleaning process equipment and related automation equipment, the first two-in-one coating equipment has been successfully delivered. On the HJT route, the company provides process equipment and related automation equipment such as cashmere making, cleaning and electroplating metallization equipment, in which electroplating metallization equipment is horizontal light-induced plating, which can be used in HJT copper gate process. At the end of 2022, we obtained the order of 4GW HJT cleaning equipment (including matching automation), front cleaning equipment (including supporting automation) and etching cleaning equipment. We believe that the company's battery chip equipment is expected to achieve rapid growth in 2023.
The automatic production line of power battery has achieved a breakthrough. In 2022, the company's battery automation production line achieved 350 million yuan in revenue, an increase of 102.48% over the same period last year, mainly due to the company's transformation into power battery equipment in 2022. In terms of R & D investment, the company has laid out 46 series large cylindrical power battery assembly line, square aluminum shell battery assembly line, laser cutting and stacking integrated machine, post-welding double-cell automatic line and so on. 46 series large cylindrical power battery assembly line has been delivered to the customer site trial production.
Investment advice:
We estimate that the homing net profit of the company from 2023 to 2025 will be 653 million yuan for 470 Universe 549 Placement, respectively, and the EPS will be 0.75 Universe 0.88 Placement 1.05 yuan, respectively. The current share price corresponding to Pmax E will be times that of 25-21-18.
We believe that there is still some room for the company's valuation to rise and maintain its "buy" rating.
Risk Tips:
The process of perovskite marketization is not as expected; the revenue growth of photovoltaic equipment is not as expected; the expansion of photovoltaic modules is not as expected.