存货及合同负债创新高，剔除信用减值损失23Q1 增速为正2022 年毛利率提升2.37pct 至44.76%，期间费用率降低2.93pct 至9.45%，受此影响公司净利率提升4.81pct 至32.23%，利润增速高于营收。费用结构改善明显，其中研发费用4795.62 万元（+42.84%），财务费用-1724.33 万元（-748.81%），主要系利息收入增加。Incident Overview
The company released its 2022 annual report and 2023 quarterly report, with revenue of 860 million yuan (+17.04%) for 22 years and net profit of 277 million yuan (+37.58%) to the mother. 23Q1 revenue was 245 million yuan (+9.07%), and net profit to the mother was 90 million yuan (-16.37%).
Analytical judgment:
Inventory and contract debt reached record highs. Excluding credit impairment losses, the 23Q1 growth rate was a positive increase in gross margin of 2.37pct to 44.76% in 2022, and the expense ratio decreased by 2.93pct to 9.45%. Affected by this, the company's net interest rate increased 4.81 pct to 32.23%, and profit growth was higher than revenue. The cost structure improved markedly. Among them, R&D expenses were 479.5562 million yuan (+42.84%), and financial expenses - 17.2433 million yuan (-748.81%), mainly due to an increase in interest income.
The gross profit margin for the first quarter of '23 was 53.28%, the inventory size was 1,596 million yuan, and the contract debt was 384 million yuan. All three indicators were new highs in the past three years. The company adopts a market-based production model, and we determine that inventory is expected to be converted into revenue in the short term. The negative impact of credit impairment losses on profits in 23Q1 was 29 million yuan higher than in the same period last year. Excluding this influence, the net profit growth rate of the mother in the first quarter was positive, which basically matched the revenue growth rate.
Focusing on accurate guidance of active phased arrays, the fixed products have been used by many satellite companies. The main products are millimeter-wave active phased array microsystems, which are used in the field of accurate guidance, accounting for 98% of the cost of an antenna microsystem in an active phased array radar. Currently, there are three pre-production products: M03, R03, and TG120. Mass supply of the new model X03 began in the fourth quarter of 2020. The company reasonably expects this model to become an important part of revenue in the future. In addition, there are more than ten models under development, and we expect them to be finalized and mass-produced one after another.
The M03 and R03 models reached batch production status in 2018 and 2019, respectively, and achieved revenue of 266 million yuan and 374.336 million yuan respectively in 2020. In February '22, the company signed two order contracts for a supporting product, with a total amount of 2,407 billion yuan. The company has plenty of on-hand orders, which are expected to benefit from compensatory growth in the precision guidance industry chain and increased penetration rate of phased array technology. According to the company's investors' questions and answers, the company's products are mainly used in interstellar communication in the field of communications. Currently, a fixed product has been successfully used on many satellites.
Investment advice
As a leading enterprise in the field of phased array microsystems, the company maintained revenue of 1,234/1,599 million yuan respectively in 2023-2024, an increase of 43.4%/29.7% over the previous year, and Guimu's net profit of 388/497 million yuan. The year-on-year increase of 39.8%/28.2% is expected unchanged. It is expected to achieve revenue of 2,074 million yuan in 2025, an increase of 29.7% over the previous year, and Guimu's net profit of 645 million yuan, an increase of 29.9% over the previous year. The 2023-2025 EPS is expected to be 2.22/2.85/3.70 yuan respectively, corresponding to the closing price of 69.01 yuan/share on April 25, 2023. PE is 32/25/19 times respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk warning
Risk of phased array technology falling short of expectations; risk that order growth rate falls short of expectations; risk that downstream demand falls short of expectations, etc.
Note: The Luzhou Huaxi Jinzhi Yinju Equity Investment Fund Partnership (Limited Partnership) managed by Huaxi Jinzhi, a subsidiary of Huaxi Securities Co., Ltd., held 2.52% of Leiden Weili's shares.
