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首创证券:五一旅游消费复苏强劲 长线、出境游需求显著释放

Capital Securities: May Day travel consumption recovered strongly in the long term, and demand for outbound travel was significantly released

Zhitong Finance ·  Apr 26, 2023 15:35

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Capital Securities released a research report saying that the demand for travel during the May 1st holiday was remarkable, domestic long-term travel and outbound travel product reservations were soaring, air tickets and hotels benefited from the popularity of travel, and reservation data increased dramatically over the same period last year.Optimistic about sector investment opportunities brought about by the rising popularity of the travel market.It is recommended to pay attention to the peak season catalytic market after the quarterly report in the areas such as Hotel Jinjiang Hotel (600754.SH), First Trip Hotel (600258.SH), etc., Scenic Area China Youth Travel (), Tianmu Lake (), Song Cheng Performing Arts (300144.SZ), Ctrip, Duty Free China Duty Free (), Wangfujing (), etc. 600138.SH 603136.SH 601888.SH 600859.SH

▍ The main views of Capital Securities are as follows:

Ctrip predicts that May Day reservation data will exceed pre-epidemic levels, with recovery levels in scenic spots > hotels > air tickets.

Ctrip released the “2023 May Day Holiday Travel Forecast Report”. Less than 10 days until the holiday, the number of domestic hotel, scenic spot tickets, and air ticket orders on the Ctrip platform all surpassed 2019 levels; judging from the extent of recovery, scenic tickets > hotels > air tickets.

According to the Ctrip Transportation Market Search Index, as of now, the popularity of domestic airline ticket searches during the May 1st holiday in 2023 exceeded 290% of the same period in 2022 and recovered to 110% in the same period of 2019; the popularity of the lodging industry far exceeded expectations. The popularity of the domestic hotel market during the “May 1st Golden Week” domestic hotel market search popularity reached more than 9 times that of May 1 in 2022, an increase of nearly 200% compared to the same period of May 1 in 2019.

Demand for domestic long-term travel and outbound travel was released significantly during the May 1st holiday, and domestic demand for long-term travel and outbound travel was released significantly during the May 1st holiday, accounting for 56% and 15% of the number of travelers, respectively.

According to Ctrip, as of April 19, May Day long-term travel orders accounted for nearly 70%, up 6 pct compared to 2019, and long-term travel increased after the pandemic. Judging from the number of days stayed in a hotel, the proportion of people staying for 3 days and 4 days both increased. Among them, the proportion of people staying for 4 days increased the most significantly, an increase of 5 pct compared to the same period in 2019.

Hotel bookings are increasing in volume and price.

According to the “2023 May Day Bed and Breakfast Travel Report” released by Tujia Bed and Breakfast, as of April 17, the number of early bookings for the “May Day” homestay platform was double that of the same period in 2019, and the average price of a night reached 534 yuan.

Passenger flow at major airports in Hainan:

Since the beginning of the month, Haikou Meilan Airport has had a cumulative total of 10,365 flights, +231.89% year on year, recovering to 114.49% in the same period in 2019. Since the beginning of the month, Hainan Sanya Phoenix Airport has had a cumulative total of 7,856 flights, an increase of 644.64% over the previous year, and recovered to 120.29% in the same period in 2019.

Risk warning:

The epidemic continues to recur; industry demand recovery falls short of expectations; industry policies fall short of expectations; industry competition intensifies; downward macroeconomic pressure increases; governance risks for listed companies; risk of sharp holdings reduction by important shareholders; risk of significant impairment of goodwill; and geopolitical risk.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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