The Zhitong Finance App learned that Capital Securities released a research report saying that the latest data released on April 18 showed that in March 2023, the country's raw coal production was 417.22 million tons, an increase of 4.3% over the previous year. The growth rate was 1.5 percentage points slower than in January-February, and the coal industry's capacity utilization rate declined slightly. In terms of thermal coal, port prices stopped falling and stabilized, and the growth rate of thermal power generation changed from decline to rise in March. It is expected that as temperatures continue to rise in various regions of the country in the future, a rebound in coal use for electricity is expected to boost demand. Prices for coking coal are still running weakly and steadily, and downstream production in Q1 maintained a high growth rate. Currently, it is seen that the overall supply and demand for coking coal is stable. The current price decline is mainly affected by the increase in import volume and price. It is expected that volume and price will stabilize later.
Investment advice:The focus is on Shaanxi Coal Industry (601225.SH), Yankuang Energy (600188.SH), Shanxi Coking Coal (000983.SZ), and Lu'an Huanneng (). 601699.SH
The main views of Capital Securities are as follows:
Thermal coal port prices stopped falling and stabilized, and the growth rate of thermal power generation changed from decline to increase in March.
Prices in thermal coal production areas declined sharply last week, and port prices remained basically the same week over week. On the supply side, coal mines in the main production areas were producing normally last week, and coal supply was stable. In terms of downstream demand, maintenance of some power plant units has been completed one after another, daily power plant consumption has picked up slightly, Changxie coal supply is sufficient, and procurement in the electricity coal market is limited; the release of demand for coal for non-electricity uses such as cement and chemicals is lackluster, and demand is expected to rise after maintenance by chemical companies is completed. According to information released by the National Bureau of Statistics on April 18, in March 2023, the country's power generation capacity was 717.3 billion kilowatt-hours, an increase of 5.1% over the previous year. The growth rate was 4.4 percentage points faster than in January-February. Among them, thermal power changed from decline to increase, with a year-on-year increase of 9.1%. It is expected that as temperatures continue to rise in various regions of the country in the future, a rebound in coal used for electricity is expected to boost demand. In terms of inventory, as of April 21, the total inventory of the Northern Port was 24.47 million tons, a decrease of 780,000 tons from April 14, or 3.09%. In terms of port prices, as of April 21, the price of the Q6100 Shenmu block bank in Guangzhou Port increased by 1,531 yuan/ton, which was the same from week to week; the final price of Q5500 coal produced in Jingtang Port and Shanxi was 1,014 yuan/ton, up 0.40% from week to week.
Coking coal prices are still running weakly and steadily, and downstream production in Q1 maintained a high growth rate.
In terms of coking coal supply, coal mines in the main production areas are producing normally, coal supply is stable, and shipments from some coal mines where prices have dropped sharply in the early stages have improved, but most of the remaining mines are still under inventory pressure, and prices at production sites and port prices continue to decline. In terms of downstream demand, the third round of reduction was implemented rapidly by Coking Enterprises, but due to the simultaneous decline in raw material prices, the overall operating rate still rebounded slightly. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in January-March, crude steel production was 260 million tons, up 6.1% year on year; pig iron production was 220 million tons, up 7.6% year on year; steel production was 330 million tons, up 5.8% year on year. Coke production was 120 million tons, an increase of 3.8% over the previous year. Currently, the overall supply and demand for coking coal is stable. The current price decline is mainly affected by the increase in import volume and the fall in prices. It is expected that volume and price will stabilize in the later stages. In terms of import prices, as of April 21, the CIF price of Australia's main coking coal was 270 US dollars/ton, down 8.01% from week to week; coal refining site price at Ganqimaodu Port in Mongolia was 1,700 yuan/ton, down 1.73% from week to week; 1/3 coking site price at Chek Port was 1,140 yuan/ton, down 4.20% from week to week.
The country's raw coal production increased 5.5% year-on-year in the first quarter, and the coal industry's capacity utilization rate declined slightly.
According to the latest data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on April 18, in March 2023, the country produced 417.22 million tons of raw coal, an increase of 4.3% over the previous year, and the growth rate was 1.5 percentage points slower than in January-February. In March, the average daily production was 13.46 million tons, an increase of 1.02 million tons from 12.44 million tons in January-February. In January-March 2023, the country produced a total of 1153.03 million tons of raw coal, an increase of 5.5% over the previous year. At the same time, the National Bureau of Statistics also announced the capacity utilization rate for the first quarter of 2023. Among them, the national coal mining and washing industry capacity utilization rate was 73.8%, down 1.1 percentage points from the same period last year and 1.6 percentage points from the fourth quarter of the previous year. Overall, the country's industrial capacity utilization rate was 74.3%, down 1.5 percentage points from the same period last year and 1.4 percentage points from the previous quarter. With the exception of individual industries, the capacity utilization rate of almost all industries showed a downward trend.
Risk warning:The steady growth policy fell short of expectations, weak demand, a sharp drop in coal prices, etc.