2022 年化工品产量整体略有下降，23Q1 售价环比下滑。2022 年，公司加工煤焦油32.17 万吨，同比减少1.83%；加工粗苯11.61 万吨，同比增长1.31%；生产甲醇27.53 万吨，同比增长14.66%；生产炭黑2.80 万吨，主要受环保因素影响同比减少60.28%。23Q1，公司主要化工产品售价环比下滑，其中沥青售价同比上涨11.05%，环比下降17.82%；工业萘售价同比上涨16.12%，环比下降0.52%；甲醇售价同比下降4.06%，环比下降4.74%；炭黑售价同比上涨11.15%，环比下降13.97%；纯苯售价同比下降10.39%，环比下降0.04%。Event: On April 24, 2023, the company released its 2022 annual report and 2023 quarterly report. In 2022, the company achieved revenue of 12.075 billion yuan, an increase of 7.55% over the previous year; Guimu's net profit was 2,582 billion yuan, an increase of 104.87% over the previous year. In the first quarter of 2023, the company achieved operating income of 2,467 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 20.85%; Guimu's net profit was 763 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 32.03%.
China Coal Huajin contributed considerable investment returns. The company holds 49% of the shares in China Coal Huajin. Its main coal products are high-quality lean coal, which is scarce in the country, and is sold in stock. It has stable and strong sustainable profitability. With coal prices rising in 2022, the company confirmed China Coal Huajin's investment income of 3.442 billion yuan, an increase of 1,588 billion yuan over 1,862 million yuan in 2021, an increase of 84.81% over the previous year. In 23Q1, the spot price of coking coal declined, affecting the company's net investment income falling 8.57% year-on-year to 1,136 billion yuan. We expect 23Q2 to decline again.
Costs rose significantly in 2022, gross margin of coke declined, and 23Q1 sales prices picked up month-on-month. In 2022, the company achieved coke production of 3,537,800 tons, an increase of 2.12% over the previous year; coke sales volume was 3,546,900 tons, an increase of 2.42% over the previous year; the average sales price of 2552.36 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.10% over the previous year; the cost of a ton of coke was 2726.51 yuan/ton, an increase of 13.85% over the previous year; and the gross margin of the coke business fell 11.69 pct to -6.82% year on year. In 23Q1, the company achieved coke production of 740,800 tons, down 16.27% year on year and 15.86% month on month; coke sales volume was 731,000 tons, down 17.60% year on year, down 16.94% month on month; average sales price was 2492.41 yuan/ton, down 4.56% year on year, up 8.27% month on month. In terms of cost, the unit price of refined coal purchased by the 23Q1 company was 1973.73 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.97% over the previous year and a decrease of 1.61% from the previous month.
Overall chemical production declined slightly in 2022, with prices falling month-on-month in 23Q1. In 2022, the company processed 327,000 tons of coal tar, a year-on-year decrease of 1.83%; processed 116,600 tons of crude benzene, an increase of 1.31% over the previous year; produced 275,300 tons of methanol, an increase of 14.66%; and produced 28,000 tons of carbon black, mainly affected by environmental factors, a decrease of 60.28% over the previous year. In 23Q1, the price of the company's main chemical products declined month-on-month. Among them, the price of asphalt rose 11.05% yoy and fell 17.82% yoy; the price of industrial naphthalene rose 16.12% yoy, down 0.52% month-on-month; the price of methanol fell 4.06% yoy, down 4.74% month-on-month; the price of carbon black rose 11.15% yoy, down 13.97% month-on-month; the price of pure benzene fell 10.39% yoy, down 0.04% month-on-month.
The proposed cash dividend is 19.85%, and the dividend ratio is 3.66%. The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.2 yuan (tax included) per share, with a total cash dividend of 512 million yuan, accounting for 19.85% of the net profit attributable to the parent company. Based on the closing price of April 24, 2023, the dividend rate is 3.66%.
Investment proposal: According to the annual report, the company plans to produce 3.2 million tons of dry coke, 340,000 tons of tar, 115,000 tons of crude benzene, 260,000 tons of methanol, and 70,000 tons of carbon black in 2023. We expect the company's net profit to be 2,042/26.73/2,867 billion yuan in 2023-2025. The corresponding EPS will be 0.80/1.04/1.12 respectively, and the PE corresponding to April 24, 2023 will be 7/5/5 times, respectively. Maintain a “Cautiously Recommended” rating.
Risk warning: The macroeconomic growth rate fell short of expectations; China Coal's Huajin investment earnings fell short of expectations; the price of coke fell sharply.
