Brief performance review
On April 24, the company disclosed its quarterly report for '23. In Q1 of '23, the company achieved revenue of 433 million yuan, +16.4% year on year; achieved net profit of 29 million yuan, +131.6% year on year; after deducting non-net profit of 0.3 million yuan, +189.6% year on year, in line with expectations.
Management analysis
Q1 The company's profit level rebounded year-on-year and month-on-month, and the profit side recovered. The company's gross profit margin in Q1 in '23 was 14.25%, +2.38pcts year on year and +1.01 pcts month-on-month. The profit level improved both year-on-year and month-on-month. On the cost side, the company's expense rate during Q1 was 6.3%, a year-on-year decrease of 1.4pct. Among them, the sales expense ratio was 0.4%, the year-on-year decrease of 0.1pct, the management expenses rate was 3.0%, a year-on-year decrease of 0.2 pct, and the R&D expenses rate was 3.6%, an increase of 0.4 pct over the previous year. The company's net interest rate in Q1 '23 was 6.8%, 3.4pct compared to the previous year. Looking forward to high demand in the downstream wind turbine tower flange market in '23, the volume and price of the company's large megawatt flange products rose sharply, which led to a gradual improvement in the company's profit side.
The rise in downstream wind power demand in '23 is expected to drive continued improvement in the company's flange business. Looking ahead to '23, with the increase in the size of fans and the boom in offshore wind power installations, the company is expected to fully benefit as a domestic large megawatt wind power flange leader. According to the company announcement, the subsidiary Hengrun Huan Forging has achieved mass production of wind turbine tower flanges of 10MW and above in the existing plant area, and is gradually breaking through to 12MW. It is expected that the company's customized, high-margin offshore large megawatt wind power flange product structure will continue to be optimized, and the gross margin of wind power rolling flanges is expected to reach 22.2%/24.6%/25.5% in 23-25.
The company is expanding its wind power bearing products vertically, and its performance is expected to increase in '23. The new 6MW three-row independent propeller bearing developed by the subsidiary Hengrun Transmission in '22 has been mass-produced and sold. At this stage, production capacity of 150 sets/month has climbed. At the same time, the 8MW independent propeller bearing is in the bench test certification stage. It is expected that spindle bearings will begin to be released after overseas belt-free hardening equipment was launched in '23. We expect bearings to contribute around 92/16.6/2.0 billion yuan in revenue in 23-25.
Profit Forecasts, Valuations, and Ratings
As a wind turbine tower flange leader, the company is expected to fully benefit from the trend of larger fans, and its market share will continue to increase. At the same time, the company is actively laying out the wind power bearing and gearbox forging business, which is expected to create a second growth curve. We expect the company's net profit to be 30/63/860 million yuan respectively in 23/24/25, and the current price of the company's stock corresponding to PE valuation is 30/14/10 times, maintaining the “increase in holdings” rating.
Risk warning
Downstream wind power installations fell short of expectations, the company's capacity expansion and new product development fell short of expectations, raw material prices rose, the risk of restricted shares being lifted, equity pledges and holdings reduction risks, and exchange rate fluctuations.