2022 年化工业务主要产品价格同比有所上升，毛利贡献有所增加。2022 年公司化工板块甲醇、炭黑、纯苯销量分别为27.64/2.80/8.17 万吨（同比分别+14.88%/-61.06%/-0.24%），炭黑产品销量下降的原因是公司炭黑产线受环保因素影响停车时间较长，销售均价分别同比增加6.17%/33.25%/12.05%，化工板块收入/成本分别为29.81/25.49 亿元（同比分别+22.05%/+17.69%），贡献毛利4.32 亿元（同比+1.55 亿元），起到了一定的减亏效果。2023 年公司计划加工焦油34 万吨，加工粗苯11.5 万吨，生产甲醇26 万吨，生产炭黑7 万吨。The company's performance increased significantly in 2022, mainly due to a significant increase in investment income from participation in coking coal mines. In 202Q4 and 2023Q1, the company's coking business lost to varying degrees. Considering that it will still take time for the company's coking profits to improve, the price of coking coal may fall, or the company's investment income will be affected, we maintain the company's “increase holdings” rating.
Revenue increased slightly in 2022, and net profit attributable to the mother doubled year over year, driven by investment income. The company's operating income/net profit attributable to the parent in 2022 was 120.75/2,582 billion yuan respectively, +7.55%/+104.87% year-on-year, and EPS was about 1.01 yuan, +104.86% year on year. The company's net profit for the single quarter of 2022/Q4 was 124 million yuan, mainly due to a decline in investment income contributed by China Coal Huajin Q4. The increase in the company's annual performance mainly comes from the confirmed investment income of the China Coal Huajin Coking Mine of 3.442 billion yuan, an increase of 84.80% over the previous year. Excluding investment income, the company's main coking business is expected to lose 868 million yuan. The company's profit distribution plan is to pay 0.20 yuan per share, with a dividend rate of 19.85% and a corresponding dividend rate of about 3.66%.
The gross profit of the coke business turned negative year over year in 2022. The company's coke production/sales volume in 2022 was 3,5378/3,546,900 tons respectively (+2.12%/+2.42% year-on-year respectively), and the price/unit cost was 2,552.36/2,726.51 yuan/ton (+1.10%/+13.85%, respectively). The unit cost growth rate was higher than the unit sales price, and the gross margin of the coke business fell 11.96 pcts to -6.82%, mainly affected by the rise in the price of refined coal as raw materials. The company plans to produce 3.2 million tons of dry coke in 2023, a year-on-year decline, but the coking process has changed.
Prices of major products in the chemical business increased year-on-year in 2022, and the gross profit contribution increased. In 2022, sales of methanol, carbon black, and pure benzene in the company's chemical sector were 27.64/2.80/81,700 tons respectively (+14.88%/-61.06%/-0.24% respectively). The reason for the decline in carbon black product sales was due to the fact that the company's carbon black production line was affected by environmental factors and stopped for a long time. The average sales price increased 6.17%/33.25%/12.05%, respectively. The chemical sector's revenue/cost was 29.81/25.49 billion yuan (+22.05%/+17.69% year-on-year respectively), contributing to gross profit of 4.32 billion yuan 100 million yuan (+155 million yuan over the same period) had a certain effect of reducing losses. In 2023, the company plans to process 340,000 tons of tar, 115,000 tons of crude benzene, production of 260,000 tons of methanol, and 70,000 tons of carbon black.
2023Q1 net revenue and profit both declined, and investment income declined slightly. The operating income/net profit of the 2023Q1 company was 2,467/763 million yuan respectively (-20.85%/-32.03% year-on-year respectively). The investment income of the coking coal mine decreased. The investment income of the Q1 company was 1,136 million yuan, a decrease of 8.57% over the previous year. The coke production/sales volume of 2023Q1 company was 74.08/731,000 tons respectively (-16.27%/-17.60% year-on-year, -15.86%/-16.94%, respectively). The average selling price was 2492.41 yuan/ton, down 4.56% from the previous year and up 8.27% from the previous year.
In the chemical sector, sales of asphalt were 31,400 tons, an increase of 45.61% over the previous year. Sales of other products did not change much year over year. The average sales price trend of various products was differentiated. The average sales prices of methanol, carbon black, and pure benzene changed -3.90%/+11.15%/-10.39%, respectively. 2023Q1, the company's overall gross margin was -7.38%.
Risk factors: Coke prices fluctuate greatly; coking business continues to lose money; pressure on coking coal prices increases or drags down investment returns.
Investment advice: We maintain the company's 2023 EPS profit forecast of 0.78 yuan. Considering that the price of coking coal is expected to break out of the trough in 2024 and the company's investment income is expected to increase, we raised the company's 2024 EPS forecast to 0.90 yuan (the original forecast was 0.81 yuan), adding the 2025 EPS forecast of 0.92 yuan. The current price is 5.46 yuan, corresponding to P/E7.0/6.1/5.9x from 2023 to 2025, corresponding to P/B0.9/0.8/0.7x. Considering the long-term reasonable valuation level of the coal sector (market value maintained at the level of net assets, that is, p/B1x), we gave the company a target valuation of P/B1x in 2023, corresponding to the company's target price of 6 yuan, maintaining the company's “increase” rating.
