Sales revenue increased 64% year-on-year, and intelligent equipment and electronic control of motors grew at an accelerated pace. In 2022 as a whole, the company achieved operating income of 3.5 billion yuan, an increase of 64% over the previous year; the net profit of the mother was 149 million yuan, an increase of 14% over the previous year.
Among them, the total revenue of electric drive systems for new energy vehicles was 800 million yuan, an increase of 99% over the previous year; the total solution revenue for intelligent equipment was 2.4 billion yuan, an increase of 46% over the previous year. In the fourth quarter alone, the company achieved operating income of 1.3 billion yuan, an increase of 84% over the previous year, an increase of 77% over the previous year; Guimu's net profit was 51 million yuan, an increase of 693% over the previous year, and an increase of 49% over the previous month. The growth rate of automobiles in the new energy industry is relatively fast. Combined with the company's strong product competitiveness, increased market share, and improved customer structure, the company's sales revenue has maintained a growth rate of more than 40% for 2 consecutive years, and the electric drive system business has doubled for 2 consecutive years.
Profit margins decline in the short term, and scale effects dilute period expenses. In 2022 as a whole, the company's gross margins and net margins were 18%/4%, respectively, down 5.67/1.89 percentage points from the previous year. The sales/management/R&D/finance expense ratio was 2.43%/4.42%/6.94%/-0.60%, respectively, compared with -0.86/-1.07/-0.90/-0.68 percentage points, respectively. In the fourth quarter alone, the company's gross margins and net interest rates were 17.88%/3.90%, respectively -1.38/+5.11 percentage points, respectively, down 0.12/0.75 percentage points from the previous quarter; the sales/management/R&D/financial expenses ratio was 1.82%/3.40%/5.98%/-0.28%, -1.40/-2.07/-1.68/-0.48 percentage points, respectively -1.11/-1.87/-1.87/-1.82/+0.39 percentage points from the previous quarter. In 2022, prices of external raw materials rose, epidemic control in some regions pushed up delivery costs, and the size of internal company management teams and personnel expanded rapidly. In addition, the company's equity incentive of more than 10 million yuan was included in management expenses, which led to a decline in the company's profit margin, but the rapid expansion of the company's sales scale also diluted the cost rate during the period and achieved excellent cost control.
The customer structure is high quality, the business plan is clear, and it has the potential to become an industry leader. In the field of intelligent equipment, the company's main customers include Tesla, BYD, Volkswagen, NIO, Ideal, etc., and has set up an independent division to actively promote business related to battery production lines. In the field of electric drive systems, the company's main customers include Ideal Auto, NIO, Geely Automobile, Guangzhou Automobile Group, Jianghuai Automobile, etc., and has completed the development and implementation of highly integrated electric drive systems such as seven-in-one. The company's business expanded rapidly, the number of R&D personnel nearly doubled, actively introduced international management consulting firms and high-end talents to optimize and upgrade the organizational structure, and plans to expand and reserve the third curve of the company's development in due course, laying the foundation for the company's development in 2025-2027.
Risk warning: The sales volume of new energy vehicles fell short of expectations, and the cost of raw materials rose sharply.
Investment advice: Lower the profit forecast and maintain the “increase in holdings” rating.
Due to intense price competition in the automobile industry this year, we lowered our profit forecast. The company's net profit for 2023/2024/2025 is estimated to be 265/367/544 million yuan respectively (the original forecast for 2023/2024 was 332/447 million yuan respectively), and the corresponding PE was 21/15/10 times respectively, maintaining the “increase in holdings” rating.