盈利预测：根据光伏行业的高景气发展态势、上游高纯石英砂价格持续高位，预计公司23 年归母净利润将保持高速增长。我们上调盈利预测，预计公司2023-2025年归母净利润为9.04/12.66/14.34 亿元，同比增速为279.4%/39.9%/13.3%。对应EPS 分别为6.58/9.21/10.44 元/股，对应PE 分别为18/13/11 倍，维持“买入”评级。The company's 22-year and 23Q1 performance exceeded expectations and continued to grow rapidly. In 2022, the company achieved revenue of 1,434 million, up 69.01% year on year; achieved net profit of 238 million yuan, up 78.67% year on year; overall gross margin was 27.88%, up 1.62 pct year on year; Q1 of 2023 achieved revenue of 636 million, up 136.89% year on year, up 28.48% from 22Q4; achieved net profit of 172 million yuan, up 292.13% year on year, up 105.46% from 22Q4; overall gross margin was 34.33%, up year on year 6.62 pct, an increase of 7.17 pct over 22Q4.
The volume and price of the quartz crucible business have risen sharply, and profitability continues to increase. Due to the booming development of the downstream photovoltaic industry and the continuous rise in the price of high-purity quartz sand, the volume and price of the company's quartz crucible business have risen sharply. The company achieved revenue of 756 million yuan of quartz crucibles in 2022, an increase of 150.94% over the previous year; achieved sales of 1212,000 quartz crucibles, an increase of 44.28% over the previous year; the average sales price of the company's quartz crucibles in 2022 was 6234.76 yuan/piece, an increase of 73.92% over the previous year; and achieved a gross profit margin of 42.58%, an increase of 4.43pct over the previous year. In terms of profitability, the overall gross margin for Q23 was 34.33%, an increase of 6.62 pct over the previous year, and an increase of 7.17 pct over 22Q4.
The plan is to issue convertible bonds to accelerate production capacity expansion, adding 180,000 quartz crucibles to production capacity. The company plans to issue a convertible bond project to raise capital to build a new quartz crucible production line. The company plans to raise 62 million yuan to expand production capacity, of which 329 million yuan will be used to invest in the Ningxia quartz crucible phase I and II projects, the first phase will build 8 production lines and the second phase will build 10 production lines, adding 180,000 new quartz crucible production capacity; 128 million yuan will be used to invest in the Ningxia cutting fluid online treatment project. After completion, the company will have 3.6 million tons/year of high standard cutting fluid supply capacity. After the completion of the convertible bond project, the production capacity of the company's high-quality quartz crucibles and their supporting facilities will be further increased, speeding up the domestic replacement process for high-quality quartz crucibles.
Profit forecast: According to the booming development trend of the photovoltaic industry and the continued high price of upstream high-purity quartz sand, it is expected that the company's net profit will continue to grow rapidly in 23 years. We raised our profit forecast. The company's net profit for 2023-2025 is estimated to be 904/12.66/1,434 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 279.4%/39.9%/13.3%. The corresponding EPS was 6.58/9.21/10.44 yuan/share, respectively, and the corresponding PE was 18/13/11 times, respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk warning: demand falls short of expectations; raw materials fluctuate greatly; capacity expansion falls short of expectations
