各项经济活动的开展将从需求端支撑成品油价格，炼厂利润可期。2022 年疫情影响下，我国成品油消费需求增速放缓，全年汽柴煤油消费量为3.3 亿吨，同比增长2%，其中，汽油下降5.4%，柴油增长23.2%，煤油下降51.1%。2022年12 月我国疫情管控放开，我国经济将逐步修复，煤油作为交通工具的燃料，随着居民出行需求的释放将随之恢复，2月我国民航旅客周转量为697.2 亿人公里，同比增长44%。Incident: Huajin Co., Ltd. announced its 2022 annual report. The company's profit declined year-on-year in 2022 due to factors such as a sharp rise in crude oil prices and weak market demand. The company achieved annual revenue of 49.06 billion yuan, an increase of 26.9% over the previous year, and Guimu's net profit was 530 million yuan, a decrease of 43.9% over the previous year. At the same time, the company issued a forecast loss announcement for the first quarter. Affected by factors such as falling international crude oil prices, weak demand in the downstream petrochemical market, and rising raw material costs for natural gas, the company expects net profit loss of 4-5 billion yuan to the mother in the first quarter of 2023, a year-on-year decrease of 240.8%-276%.
The company's revenue grew as international crude oil prices rose. The 2022 Russian-Ukrainian war triggered large fluctuations in international energy prices. The company's product prices rose, achieving annual revenue of 490.6 billion yuan, an increase of 27.3% over the previous year. Among them, the petrochemical sector operated smoothly and the product structure was further optimized. Petrochemical products achieved revenue of 42.25 billion yuan, an increase of 32.1% over the previous year, accounting for 3.4pp of 86.1%; the revenue of fine chemical products reached 3.82 billion yuan, an increase of 6.2% over the previous year, with a slight decrease of 1.5pp of 7.8%; the fertilizer industry achieved revenue of 2.67 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.9% , accounting for 5.4%.
The increase in product prices was lower than the increase in raw materials, leading to a decrease in the company's gross profit. Affected by the epidemic in 2022, downstream consumer demand for products was sluggish. The increase in the company's product prices was less than the increase in raw materials. The company's gross margin fell 4.4pp year-on-year to 16.5%. By industry, the gross margins of the petrochemical, fertilizer, and fine chemical sectors in 2022 were 16.2%, 39.3%, and 4.9% respectively, down 3 pp, 2.3 pp, and 17.6 pp respectively from 2021.
The development of various economic activities will support the price of refined oil products from the demand side, and refinery profits can be expected. Under the influence of the epidemic in 2022, the growth rate of China's refined oil consumption slowed. The annual consumption of gasoline, diesel and kerosene was 330 million tons, an increase of 2% over the previous year. Among them, gasoline fell 5.4%, diesel increased 23.2%, and kerosene fell 51.1%. China's epidemic control is liberalized in December 2022, and China's economy will gradually recover. Kerosene is used as fuel for transportation. As residents' travel demand is released, China's civil aviation passenger turnover in February was 69.72 billion kilometers per person, an increase of 44% over the previous year.
Profit forecasts and investment recommendations. The company's net profit for 2023-2025 is estimated to be 54, 650, and 870 million yuan respectively, and EPS is 0.33, 0.41, and 0.55 yuan respectively. Combining the valuation of comparable companies with the current business layout of Huajin Co., Ltd., the company was given 26 times PE in 2023, corresponding to the target price of 8.58 yuan, covering the “buy” rating for the first time.
Risk warning: Risks such as a sharp rise in crude oil prices, macroeconomic fluctuations, and petrochemical product sales falling short of expectations.