Report summary

The performance stage in 2022 was affected by the external environment, and training internal skills were under pressure to cope with cost pressure.

The company released a quick performance report for the year 22. In 2022, the company achieved operating income of 10.683 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.7% from the previous year, and the net profit of the mother was 637 million yuan, a decrease of 37.19% from the previous year. Mainly due to the influence of the external environment such as the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and the intensification of international inflation in '22, the continued high prices of fuels such as natural gas and coal led to high electricity prices for power generation companies, under pressure on costs and a decline in profitability in the power industry. The company carried out energy-saving transformation and operation optimization of generator sets internally, increased the implementation of Changxie fuel, stabilized procurement prices, continued to expand heat users, actively sought heating prices and electricity price policies, and at the same time expanded various businesses such as sludge blending, solid waste disposal, and hot water supply externally, which smoothed out the negative impact of rising fuel prices to a certain extent.

The profit of thermoelectric units increased, the asset structure was optimized, and net profit returned to the mother in 23Q1 increased year-on-year.

The company released a performance forecast for the first quarter of '23. Net profit for 2023Q1 was 26-33 million yuan, a sharp increase of 52.69%-93.97% over the previous year. The main reasons include: 1 company strengthened the availability and operation of renewable projects such as wind power, and the company's wind power revenue and profit increased sharply year on year; ② the company's energy consumption of the company's generator sets declined and electricity prices rose, and the profitability of cogeneration units increased; ③ significant results were achieved in adjusting the financing structure and channels and reducing financing costs during the reporting period. ④ Non-net profit of 2023Q1 was deducted from 90-120 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of about 6.5%. The reason for the large gap with Guimu's net profit is that the company's power plant “development-construction-transfer” model is a normalized business that provides a beneficial guarantee for stabilizing operating results, but this portion of revenue is still included in non-recurring profit and loss.

The capital increase of Starlink Technology lays out AI computing power, and the “electricity+storage+computing” integrated service can be expected to grow.

Recently, the company announced that it plans to invest 300 million yuan to increase the capital of Starlink Technology. After the capital increase is completed, it will hold 10% of its shares. The company lays out the AI computing power circuit, and market competitiveness and profitability are expected to further improve. In the future, the company will use its industrial advantages and current business layout from power generation to power distribution, mobile energy storage, and energy efficiency management to provide green and low-carbon energy solutions for AI computing power business. Starlink Technology will provide customers with single-phase submersible battery pack cooling solutions and superior resources and high-quality products related to AI computing power services, and jointly provide customers with “electricity+storage+computing” integrated services to create large-scale zero-carbon computing power in the AI era.

Investment advice

The company's net profit is expected to be 1,331 billion yuan and 1,867 billion yuan respectively in 2023 and 2024. Corresponding to the current PE of 17.6X/12.5X respectively, continued recommendations.

Risk warning

Macroeconomic downturn; fluctuations in raw material prices; risk of changes in electric vehicle policies; customer expansion falling short of expectations, etc.