全球深水油气市场回暖，公司产品突破，产能释放在即。23 年深海开采景气度复苏，国际大石油公司加大勘探开发投资力度。根据公司年报，目前深水投资已占国际石油公司海上投资的 50%以上，深水油气产量已成为其重要的组成部分。公司业务结构也在不断优化，产品不断创新与工艺持续延展。公司高附加值产品订单持续提升，深海领域订单不断增加。尤其是巴西深海海域水下 3,000 米工况的深海连接器“零件” 到“部件”的订单持续增长。截止报告期末，公司累计承接了 198 个深海油气项目的专用件产品订单。产品突破与产能释放在即，公司未来仍有望继续保持中高增速持续增长。Core views:
The company released its annual report for '22 and the quarterly report for '23. Revenue for the full year of '22 was 993 million yuan, up 86% year on year; Guimu's net profit was 121 million yuan, up 277% year on year; 23Q1 company's revenue was 271 million yuan, up 35.2% year on year, and Guimu's net profit was 30 million yuan, up 0.11% year on year. The Q23 Q1 performance fell short of expectations due to fluctuations in raw material prices and how stock payments were factored in.
The main reasons why 23Q1's performance fell short of expectations: molybdenum prices fluctuated greatly in the first quarter and direct material costs rose; the company began to include stock payments in the second quarter of '22, and 23Q1's management fee rate increased compared to the same period last year; the company's new production capacity of 7,000-ton forging machines climbed one after another, affected by later finishing capacity, and the overall capacity utilization rate was insufficient. The company actively improved its gross profit margin by increasing its share of high-end products. In '22, the company's deep-sea equipment accounted for 37%, an increase of 10% over the same period last year. It is expected that the gross margin level will continue to improve as production capacity climbs end.
The global deep-water oil and gas market is picking up, the company's products are breaking through, and production capacity is about to be released. The boom in deep-sea mining recovered in '23, and major international oil companies increased their investment in exploration and development. According to the company's annual report, deep-water investment now accounts for more than 50% of international oil companies' offshore investments, and deep-water oil and gas production has become an important part of it. The company's business structure is also continuously optimized, products are continuously innovated and processes are being extended. The company's orders for high-value-added products continue to rise, and orders in the deep-sea sector continue to increase. In particular, orders for “parts” to “parts” for deep-sea connectors operating 3,000 meters underwater in the deep sea of Brazil continue to grow. By the end of the reporting period, the company had accepted orders for special parts for 198 deep-sea oil and gas projects. Product breakthroughs and production capacity release are imminent, and the company is expected to continue to grow at a medium to high growth rate in the future.
Profit forecast and investment advice: The company's net profit for 2023-2025 is estimated to be 2.02/303/451 million, respectively, and the corresponding P/E is 28.4/18.9/12.7 times, respectively. Considering that the company's on-hand orders are full, the growth rate of production capacity release performance in the next 3 years will be high. The company was given 35xPE in '23, corresponding to a reasonable value of 36.4 yuan/share, maintaining the company's “bought” investment rating.
Risk warning: risk of falling crude oil and natural gas prices; increased risk of industry competition; rising raw material costs, etc.
