着重投入多向模锻，致力于成为亚洲领先油服锻件供应商随着油气开发向着深海以及非常规油气不断拓展，油气领域对高端闸阀需求业也不断提升。公司向太原一重订购了世界上最大的350MN 多向模锻液压机。其行程位置精度≤±0.5mm、平衡控制精度0.25mm 和同步控制精度≤±0.5mm，位于世界前列。与普通模锻相比，多向模锻的尺寸控制更为精确以及加工余量相对较小，能显著提高材料利用率和减少机械加工工时。同时由于金属流线沿锻件轮廓分布和避免飞边，在批量化制造上也将具有更大技术以及成本优势，进一步提高市场竞争力和占有率。2023Q1 net profit after deducting non-return to the mother was +23.3% year on year, maintaining the “buy” rating. In 2022, the company achieved operating income of 993 million yuan, +86.2% year on year; net profit of the mother was 121 million yuan, +277.3% year on year, lower than our expectations (131 million yuan). 2023Q1, the company achieved operating income of 271 million yuan, +35.2% year on year; net profit of the mother was 30 million yuan, +0.1% year on year; after deducting the net profit of the non-return mother was 29 million yuan, +23.3% year on year. We expect the company's net profit from 2023-2025 to be 2.52/351/478 million yuan, +107.3%/+39.3%/+36.2% year on year. Comparable company Wind agreed to expect an average value of 23PE 27x. Considering the high barriers to the product and its own high growth, it enjoyed a certain valuation premium. 40xPE was given, and the target price was 51.30 (previous value 54.80), maintaining the “buy” rating.
The revenue share of high-margin products increased compared to 2021. Expense control was good during 2022. The company achieved a gross profit margin of 23.2%, +2.5pp compared to the previous year. The main reason was that the revenue share of special parts for deep-sea equipment increased compared to 21 years. 2023Q1 achieved a gross profit margin of 22.9%, -2.0pp compared to the previous year.
Looking at period expenses: in 2022, the sales expenses rate was 2.0%, -1.1 pp year over year; the management expenses rate was 4.2%, the year-on-year -3.0 pp; the financial expenses rate was -0.9%, the year-on-year -2.3 pp, mainly due to increased exchange earnings; the R&D expenses rate was 4.1%, the year-on-year -0.8 pp; and the total period expenses rate was 9.3%, year-on-year -7.2 pp. 2023Q1, sales expense ratio 1.4%, year-on-year -0.3 pp; management expense ratio 4.2%, +0.2pp year on year; financial expense ratio 2.2%, +1.6pp year on year, mainly due to an increase in exchange losses compared to the same period in '22; R&D expenses ratio 3.5%, +0.2pp year on year. The cost rate for the total period was 11.3%, +1.7pp compared to the previous year.
Focusing on multi-directional die forging, we are committed to becoming the leading supplier of oil service forgings in Asia. As oil and gas development continues to expand towards deep sea and unconventional oil and gas, demand for high-end gate valves in the oil and gas sector continues to rise. The company ordered the world's largest 350MN multi-directional die forging hydraulic press from Taiyuan Yizhong. Its stroke position accuracy is ≤ ± 0.5 mm, balance control accuracy 0.25 mm, and synchronization control accuracy ≤ ± 0.5 mm, which is at the forefront of the world. Compared with ordinary die forging, multi-directional die forging has more accurate size control and relatively small processing margins, which can significantly improve material utilization and reduce machining time. At the same time, since the metal flow line is distributed along the contours of the forging and avoids flying edges, it will also have greater technological and cost advantages in batch manufacturing, further increasing market competitiveness and share.
High product barriers+high growth, maintaining the “buy” rating
Fluctuations in the prices and exchange rates of raw materials such as special steel have had an impact on the company's operating performance. We have appropriately lowered our previous performance forecast for 2023/2024. We expect net profit attributable to the mother in 2023-2025 to be 252/351/478 million yuan (previous value of 266/377/xxx yuan), up 107.3%/+39.3%/+36.2% over the previous year. Comparable companies unanimously expected the average PE value of Wind in '23 to be 27 times. Considering the high barriers to the company's products and its own high growth, it enjoyed a certain valuation premium. 40xPE was given, with a target price of 51.30 yuan (previous value of 54.80 yuan), maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk warning: Upstream oil and gas companies' capital expenditure has declined; the competitive pattern for deep-sea equipment has deteriorated; raw material costs have risen more than expected.
