Key points of investment
The company discloses its 2022 annual report. Revenue was reached 7.135 billion yuan, -14.19% year on year, net profit returned to mother was 949 million yuan, 56.38% year on year, net profit returned to mother after deduction was 1,114 million yuan, -46.91% year on year.
Among them, the fourth quarter alone achieved revenue of 1,971 million yuan, a year-on-year ratio of -24.85%, a net profit of 103 million yuan, a year-on-year ratio of -82.48%, and a return to the mother of 70 million yuan after deduction, -87.84% year-on-year. The company disclosed its 2022 quarterly report. Achieved revenue of 1,390 million yuan, -7.02% year on year, net profit returned to the mother was 173 million yuan, -49.4% year on year, net profit returned to the mother after deduction was 144 million yuan, or -54.13% year on year.
In 2022, the company achieved total revenue of 7.135 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 14.19%. The company's clinker, cement, gravel aggregate, concrete, real estate, environmental disposal and other businesses achieved operating income of 13.81, 45.78, 7.25 billion yuan, 2.06, 0.12, 2.08, and 025 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year changes of -22.02%, -15.82%, 8.36%, -24.32%, -46.27%, 58.97%, and 135.76%, respectively.
In terms of tonnage indicators, the average tonnage price of the company's cement and clinker in 2022 was 308.27 yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 38.06 yuan; the tonne cost was 219.44 yuan, an increase of 15.39 yuan over the previous year; gross profit of tons was 88.83 yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 53.45 yuan
In 2022, the company achieved a comprehensive gross profit margin of 33.62%, down 9.95pct from last year, mainly due to the rise in raw material prices and the decline in sales prices; at the same time, the increase in the proportion of clinker sales of western subsidiaries and the relatively low selling price affected the overall gross profit margin. The gross margins of clinker, cement, gravel aggregates, concrete and environmentally friendly products were 32.86%, 27.60%, 78.73%, 12.65%, and 50.38%, respectively, with year-on-year changes of -9.74pct, -12.99pct, -1.19pct, -10.99pct, -10.99pct, and -2.27pct, respectively.
In 2022, the company achieved a net interest rate of 13.44%, down 13.66 pct from last year; the cost rate for the period was 13.24%, +2.29pct compared to the same period. The sales expense ratio was 1.87%, up 0.44 pct from the previous year; the management expense ratio was 8.20%, up 1.66 pct from the previous year; the R&D expense ratio was 2.84 percent, up 0.67 pct from the previous year; and the financial expense ratio was 0.33%, down 0.48 pct from the previous year.
The company's net operating cash flow in 2022 was 1,020 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 64.10%; net operating cash flow per share was 1.05 yuan, a decrease of 1.88 yuan/share compared to last year. From the perspective of payout ratio, the company's payout ratio in 2022 was 112.23% and 124.48% respectively, up +0.39 and +11.7 percentage points respectively from the same period last year.
Profit forecast and rating: We adjusted the company's forecasted net profit for 2023-2025 to be 1,080 million yuan, 1,136 billion yuan, and 1,172 billion yuan respectively. The PE corresponding to the closing price on April 19 was 10.7 times, 10.2 times, and 9.8 times respectively, maintaining the “increase in holdings” rating.
Risk warning: demand in the real estate infrastructure market is declining; capacity expansion falls short of expectations; macroeconomic fluctuations; prices of coal raw materials fluctuate greatly; repeated epidemics have prevented cement from leaving the factory under traffic restrictions.