Core views:
The company released its 2022 annual report. In 2022, the company achieved total operating revenue of 6.037 billion yuan, an increase of 10.62% over the previous year; net profit of 242 million yuan to the mother, an increase of 0.73% over the previous year; gross margins, net margins, 3.98%, and ROE were 6.26%/3.98%/15.32%, respectively, down 1.39/0.44/2.20 pct from the previous year. 22Q4 The company achieved revenue of 1,218 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 26.52%; Guimu's net profit was 37.99 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.02% and a decrease of 46.49% from the previous month.
The price difference and sales of the 22Q4 company's main product, nylon chips, fell month-on-month, and the sharp drop in volume and price caused 22Q4 profits to decline. According to the company's operating data announcement, the company's nylon chip production volume for the full year of '22 was 453,600 tons, +105,700 tons over the previous year, and sales volume was 456,600 tons, +64,800 tons over the previous year.
22Q4 nylon slices/caprolactam prices were -5.13%/-5.74% month-on-month, and the price difference was -1.31% month-on-month; in terms of production and sales, 22Q4's nylon slice production and sales were 10.12 and 99,500 tons, respectively, and -0.86 and -11,600 tons respectively. The leasing of the Shanxi plant ended in October 2022, and 180,000 tons of 180,000 tons of the first phase of the Tengzhou plant where Shunluhua is located went into trial operation in 22Q4. In terms of important holding companies, Gashun Special, Changde, Shanxi, Shandong, and Luhua achieved net profits of 3,776, 226, -101, -132, and -2.85 million yuan respectively in '22.
Multiple projects go hand in hand to ensure long-term growth. Currently, several of the company's projects are under construction. At the end of '22, the company's projects under construction were 372 million yuan, +62% over the same period; with the construction and commissioning of new projects such as Gongshun's new nylon materials project (the first phase of 124,000 tons is expected to be put into operation in 24, project progress is 3%, a total of 168,000 tons), the Shandong Jishun PA66 project (the first phase of 80,000 tons is expected to be put into operation in 25 years, project progress is 15%), the company's energy scale and market share Will be fast Improve.
Profit forecasts and investment recommendations. The company's EPS is expected to be 0.88/1.26/1.47 yuan/share in 23-25, respectively. Considering the company's low product boom and future product growth, the PE valuation was given 16 times the company's 23-year performance, corresponding to a reasonable value of 14.06 yuan/share, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk warning. Demand for nylon has declined; raw material prices have fluctuated greatly; production progress has been lower than expected; production safety incidents.