教育出版稳增长，毛利率进一步优化。公司2022 年营收112.2 亿元，同增3.0%。其中，教材教辅产品营收93.7 亿元，同增9.2%，占公司内部抵消前收入64.3%，奠定公司稳健基本盘；教材教辅收入稳健增长，我们判断主要系公司年内持续加大自研力度，推动教育产品转型升级，叠加省内K12 学生人数和结构不断优化，2022 年公司出版业务自编教材教辅销售量同增15.1%。一般图书产品营收18.0 亿元，同减11.4%，占比公司内部抵消前收入12.4%；根据开卷数据，2022 年外部多因素影响下图书零售市场承压，同降11.8%，公司一般图书产品收入增速亦与此趋同。毛利率方面，公司2022年毛利率同比上升1.7ppt 至38.9%，我们判断主要系征订、买断为主的教材教辅业务（营收43.55 亿元）增加3.36ppt 至26.0%带动，或由纸张成本下降带动，核心业务线毛利率亦有所优化。2022 profits are in line with our expectations
The company announced its 2022 results: revenue of 11.22 billion yuan, an increase of 3.0%, and Guimu's net profit of 1.68 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.6%, and non-net profit of 1.47 billion yuan, an increase of 5.7%. Among them, 4Q22 revenue was 3.87 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.2%, and Guimu's net profit was 550 million yuan, an increase of 27.1% after deducting non-net profit of 450 million yuan, an increase of 20.4%. In addition, the company announced a cash dividend of 0.39 yuan/share (tax included).
Development trends
Educational publishing has been growing steadily, and gross margins have been further optimized. The company's revenue in 2022 was 11.22 billion yuan, an increase of 3.0% over the same period. Among them, the revenue of textbook teaching aids products was 9.37 billion yuan, an increase of 9.2% over the same period, accounting for 64.3% of the company's internal revenue before offsetting, establishing the company's steady basic market; textbook teaching aid revenue grew steadily. We judge that the company continued to increase its self-research efforts during the year to promote the transformation and upgrading of educational products, compounded by continuous optimization of the number and structure of K12 students in the province. In 2022, sales of self-written textbooks and teaching aids in the company's publishing business increased 15.1%. General book product revenue was 1.80 billion yuan, down 11.4% from the same period, accounting for 12.4% of the company's internal revenue before offsetting; according to the opening data, the book retail market came under pressure in 2022 under the influence of multiple external factors, falling 11.8% the same. The growth rate of the company's general book product revenue also converged with this. In terms of gross margin, the company's gross margin increased 17ppt to 38.9% year on year in 2022. We judge that the textbook teaching aid business (revenue of 4.355 billion yuan), which is mainly subscription and buyout, increased 3.36ppt to 26.0%, or was driven by a decline in paper costs. The gross margin of the core business line was also optimized.
The operating fee rate remained stable, and the calculation of short-term external environmental disturbances increased. In terms of cost rates, the company's sales/management/R&D rates were 10.8%/12.5%/0.2% respectively in 2022, which remained stable. Due to disturbances in the external environment, the settlement of the company's fall textbook teaching aid revenue was delayed, accounts receivable and age accounting preparations increased, and inventory depreciation was also calculated. As a result, asset/ credit impairment loss claims increased 102.1%/84.5% respectively to $15,140 million, which had a slight impact on the company's profits. As the business environment normalized, we expect corresponding impairment losses to be recovered later.
Integrated development continues to advance, and steady high dividends increase investment value. In terms of integrated development, the company actively promoted key projects such as the “Publishing Industry Brain” during the year to accelerate the integrated innovation and digital transformation of the publishing business. In terms of dividends, the dividend per share in 2020-2022 was $0.32/0.35/0.39, respectively, and the dividend ratio was 47.6%/47.7%/48.4% respectively. The dividend ratio and absolute amount continued to increase. The dividend yield per share corresponding to the current stock price was 4.8%. By the end of 2022, the company's monetary capital and transactional financial assets totaled 9.83 billion yuan, accounting for 47.8% of total assets. Considering its steady operating conditions, sufficient cash reserves and good cash flow, we expect the company's dividend strategy to maintain steady growth to continue to give back to shareholders, with good dividend appeal.
Profit forecasting and valuation
Due to gross margin optimization, we raised our net profit forecast for 2023/2024 by 3.6%/6.7% to 18.0/1.91 billion yuan. The current stock price corresponds to 9.5/8.9 times P/E for 2023/2024. Maintaining an outperforming industry rating and a target price of 10.0 yuan corresponds to 11.6 times P/E in 2023, with potential upward space of 22.4%.
risks
Changes in textbook teaching aid policies, the risk of rising paper prices, potential goodwill impairment may be calculated or affect profits.
