The Zhitong Finance App learned that Guohai Securities released a research report saying that in March 2023, the total electricity consumption of the whole society was 2120.3 billion kilowatt-hours, an increase of 3.6% over the previous year. Of these, electricity consumption in March was 736.9 billion kilowatt-hours, an increase of 5.9% over the previous year, and the power generation capacity was 717.3 billion kilowatt-hours, an increase of 5.1% over the previous year. On the industry side, the power generation capacity in January-March was less than the electricity consumption of the whole society, and the overall power supply and demand showed a “tight balance”. In the future, the “tight balance” pattern may be maintained as production and living demand recovers. Maintain industry “recommended” ratings.

Incidents:The National Energy Administration and the National Bureau of Statistics released electricity consumption and energy production data for the whole society for March 2023: the total electricity consumption of the whole society in March 2023 was 2120.3 billion kilowatt-hours, up 3.6% year on year. Of these, electricity consumption in March was 7369 billion kilowatt-hours, up 5.9% year on year; power generation capacity was 717.3 billion kilowatt-hours, up 5.1% year on year; raw coal production was 420 million cubic meters, up 4.3% year on year; natural gas production was 20.5 billion cubic meters, up 4.0% year on year.

The main views of Guohai Securities are as follows:

Electricity: Electricity consumption increased 5.9% year-on-year in March, and the growth rate of electricity production accelerated

Electricity consumption: Production and life continued to recover, and electricity consumption increased 5.9% year-on-year in March.The manufacturing PMI for March was 51.9%, down 0.7 percentage points from the previous month, above the critical point. The manufacturing industry maintained its expansion trend, CPI rose 0.7% year on year, and production and life continued to recover. In January-March, the electricity consumption of the whole society totaled 2120.3 billion kilowatt-hours, an increase of 3.6% over the previous year. Among them, the electricity consumption of the whole society in March was 766.9 billion kilowatt-hours, an increase of 5.9% over the previous year. By industry, the growth rates of the first/second/tertiary sector and residential electricity consumption were +8.5pct/-13.3pct/+9.6pct/+3.5pct, respectively, compared to February this year.

Power generation side: The growth rate of electricity production is accelerating, thermal power is changing from decline to rise, the growth rate of nuclear power and solar power generation is accelerating, the growth rate of wind power is declining, and the decline in hydropower is increasing rapidly.In March, power generation was 717.3 billion kilowatt-hours, an increase of 5.1% over the previous year. The growth rate was 4.4 percentage points faster than in January-February, with an average daily generation of 23.14 billion kilowatt-hours. In January-March, power generation was 2071.2 billion kilowatt-hours, an increase of 2.4% over the previous year. By type, in March, thermal power increased 9.1% year on year, nuclear power increased 4.6%, wind power increased 0.2%, solar power increased 13.9%, and hydropower decreased 15.5%.

Coal: Raw coal production has been growing steadily, and imports have increased dramatically.On the self-production side, raw coal production grew steadily. In March, 420 million tons of raw coal were produced, an increase of 4.3% over the previous year. The growth rate was 1.5 percentage points slower than in January-February. On the import side, imports increased sharply, importing 41.17 million tons of coal, an increase of 150.7% over the previous year. The growth rate was 79.9 percentage points faster than in January-February.

Gas: Self-produced natural gas production has slowed, and imports have shifted from increase to decline.On the self-production side, natural gas production has slowed down. In March, 20.5 billion cubic meters of natural gas were produced, an increase of 4.0% over the previous year. The growth rate was 2.7 percentage points slower than in January-February, with an average daily output of 660 million cubic meters. On the import side, imports changed from decline to increase. In March, 8.87 million tons of natural gas were imported, an increase of 11.1% over the previous year, and a decrease of 9.4% in January-February.

In terms of individual stocks:We recommend Huaneng International (600011.SH), Datang Power (601991.SH), China Electric Power (02380), Guodian Electric Power (), and it is recommended to focus on thermal power standards such as Huadian International (), Guangdong Electric Power A (000539.SZ), Baoxin Energy (000690.SZ), etc., which are expected to improve profits; 600795.SH 600027.SH

Three Gorges Energy (600905.SH), Longyuan Electric Power (001289.SZ), and Jiaze Xinneng (601619.SH), which are high quality standards for hydropower, Yangtze Electric Power (), etc.; China Nuclear Power (), a high quality standard for nuclear power, etc.; China Nuclear Power (), a high-quality standard for nuclear power. 600900.SH 600886.SH 601985.SH

Risk warning:The focus is on the company's performance falling short of expectations, the risk that coal prices will continue to rise, the risk that the electricity consumption demand of the whole society falls short of expectations, the risk of falling electricity prices, the risk of policy changes. Some of the data in the report was calculated and may be different from actual data and statistics.