The bottom performance of the industry is under pressure, and the 2022 results are slightly lower than expected
According to the 2022 annual report, the company achieved operating income of 1,219 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.31%; Guimu's net profit was 223 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.25%. We lowered the 2023-2024 and added the 2025 profit forecast. It is estimated that 2023-2025 will achieve net profit of 314.4/454/607 million yuan (the original value for 2023-2024 was 331/481 million yuan), EPS was 0.77/ 1.11/ 1.48 yuan, and the current stock price corresponds to PE 29.8/ 20.7/ 15.4 times. The company's downstream PCB industry is booming at the bottom of copper plate prices. The industry's operating rate has reached the 2022 Q3 low, 2022Q4-2023Q1 continues to recover, and the PCB industry has rebounded from the bottom. As a leader in self-developed high-end PCB micro tools and equipment, the company will benefit from rising industry sentiment, high-end upgrading of its own product structure, cost reduction and efficiency of factory automation to further increase profit levels. Maintain a “buy” rating.
Expense control is good, increasing the volume of R&D into high-value products and increasing the degree of factory automation will concentrate on the company's comprehensive gross profit margin of 38.7% in 2022, which is basically the same as the previous year. The net interest rate was 18.3%, down 1.1 pcts from the previous year.
The company's cost control situation is good. In the context of increased market development and R&D investment, the sales expense ratio was only +0.56 pcts year over year, the management expense ratio was +1.45 pcts year over year, and the R&D expense ratio was only +0.51 pcts year over year. As of the 2022 annual report, the company's research projects include high-value micro-diameter drills applied to FCBGA and ABF packaging substrates, high-value composite coating tools used in multi-layer board and HDI board milling, and automated equipment such as intelligent warehousing and logistics projects and AI visual inspection equipment.
High-end PCB microtools were upgraded, factory automation reduced costs and increased efficiency, and membrane products opened up a second growth curve, and the quadruple logic boosted the company's long-term growth. The PCB industry is at the bottom of the upward trend, and demand for high-end PCB tools is growing even higher.
The company's fund-raising project expands the production capacity of high-end products such as micro drills with a diameter of 0.2 mm or less, increases the share of coated drills, and further increases revenue and gross profit; the company's per capita revenue in 2022 was 430,600 yuan, which is still lower than its competitors in the industry. Combined with the company's ongoing research projects, the newly built production capacity of the listed capital will increase the degree of factory automation, significantly reduce costs and increase efficiency, and increase net profit margins; the forward-looking vehicle light control film and mini-LED AG explosion-proof film are accelerating R&D and marketing promotion, and will open up a second growth curve for the company after future volume release; Tool production The equipment has been replaced by domestic production, which not only guarantees the speed at which new product production capacity is launched, but also that foreign sales continue to generate profits.
Risk warning: The rise in the PCB boom fell short of expectations, and the volume of new products and automated production capacity construction fell short of expectations.