公司有望凭借成本及性价比优势以及国产轮胎份额提升。全球轮胎需求量呈现稳步增长，2009-2021 年全球轮胎销量复合增速约3%，随着国产轮胎渗透率的提升，有望加速公司份额提升。1998-2021 年，米其林、普利司通、固特异三大品牌市占率从54.9%下滑至35.7%，中国轮胎企业份额从5.4%预计提升至19%。未来随着国产轮胎企业的崛起，有望带来国产白炭黑企业的需求增长。此外，公司主要竞争对手为赢创和索尔维，较高的能源价格对海外企业造成较大的成本压力。2021 年燃料成本占比二氧化硅生产成本的30%-35%，天然气成本占比接近一半，今年以来随着海外天然气成本上涨，公司产品成本优势凸显，客户加速公司核心产品系列型号的认证速度，未来公司市场份额有望逐步提升。Key points of investment:
The company is a leading domestic white carbon black company, and its overall performance has been growing steadily. Currently, the company has a production capacity of 330,000 tons. The production capacity is expected to increase to 430,000 tons in 2024, of which high-dispersion white carbon black will increase from 190,000 tons to 290,000 tons. High dispersion white carbon black is mainly used in green tires to replace carbon black, reduce tire rolling resistance, and at the same time not impair wet and slip resistance. Overall performance improved steadily. With the exception of 2020, which was affected by the pandemic, downstream demand was damaged, showing a short-term decline. The company released a performance report. In 2022, it achieved revenue of 1.75 billion yuan, an increase of 16.2% over the previous year, and achieved net profit of 380 million yuan, an increase of 28.1% over the previous year, mainly because product prices were driven by the prices of raw materials such as sulfuric acid and soda ash, and the company's orders continued to rise, achieving a sharp rise in volume and price.
High dispersion white carbon black has certain production barriers and customer barriers. The production barrier comes from precise control of factors such as the quality, component concentration, reaction time, temperature, etc. of raw materials, and at the same time requires non-standard core equipment. In addition, the certification cycle for high-dispersion white carbon black is long. Domestic customers need 2-4 years of certification time. In 2021, the company's exports and domestic sales accounted for about 50% and 50% respectively. In 2021, the company's exports and domestic sales accounted for about 50% and 50% respectively. Europe and America are the main partners. The main partners are the world's top tire companies and domestic listed and proposed companies. High-dispersion white carbon black has an important market share in tire applications.
The company is expected to increase its share of domestic tires by taking advantage of cost and cost performance advantages. Global tire demand showed steady growth. The compound growth rate of global tire sales in 2009-2021 was about 3%. As the penetration rate of domestic tires increases, it is expected to accelerate the increase in company share. In 1998-2021, the market share of the three major brands Michelin, Bridgestone, and Goodyear declined from 54.9% to 35.7%, and the share of Chinese tire companies is expected to increase from 5.4% to 19%. In the future, with the rise of domestic tire companies, it is expected that the demand for domestic white carbon black companies will increase. Furthermore, the company's main competitors are Evonik and Solvay, and higher energy prices put greater cost pressure on overseas companies. In 2021, fuel costs accounted for 30%-35% of silica production costs, and natural gas costs accounted for nearly half. Since this year, as overseas gas costs have risen, the company's product cost advantages have been highlighted. Customers have accelerated the certification speed of the company's core product series models, and the company's market share is expected to gradually increase in the future.
As global energy saving and emission reduction continues to advance, the application of high-dispersion white carbon black can reduce rolling resistance, thereby saving fuel and electricity (for new energy vehicles). Therefore, the penetration rate of green tires is expected to continue to increase, leading to greater market demand for high-dispersion white carbon black.
Based on the global sales volume of semi-steel tires and all-steel tires in 2021, they were 1.51 billion tires and 220 million tires respectively. Assuming that the greening rate of semi-steel tires reaches 70%, the greening rate of all steel tires reaches 20%, and that is, the proportion of white carbon black that replaces carbon black in half-steel and all-steel tires is about 70% and 50%, that is, adding 2.1 kg to half-steel tires and 5 kg of all-steel tires, corresponds to the global demand for highly dispersed silica about 2.44 million tons. Furthermore, combined with the steady increase in global tire sales every year, there is still plenty of room for growth in the corresponding company's current production capacity.
Profit forecasts and investment ratings: The company's performance growth is mainly based on profit recovery brought about by falling raw materials and shipping costs, as well as the gradual commissioning of highly dispersed white carbon black. The company is expected to achieve revenue of 1.75, 213, and 2.46 billion yuan in 2022-2024, and net profit of about 388, 4.6, and 560 million yuan respectively, corresponding to PE 19, 16, and 13 times that was covered for the first time, giving it an “increase in holdings” rating.
Risk warning: large fluctuations in raw materials affect profits; capacity expansion falls short of expectations; downstream tire demand falls short of expectations
