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金橙子(688291):盈利能力短暂承压 振镜控制系统龙头成长可期

Golden Orange (688291): Profitability is short, and leading pressure-bearing galvanometer control system leaders can be expected to grow

華金證券 ·  Apr 14, 2023 00:00  · Researches

Main points of investment

Event: the company released the 2022 annual report, 2022 revenue of 198 million yuan, year-on-year-2.41pct, achieve home net profit of 39 million yuan, year-on-year-25.95pct, deducted non-net profit of 37 million yuan, year-on-year-27.99pct.

Among them, Q4 achieved revenue of 48 million yuan in 2022, year-on-year-5.44pct, and net profit of 12 million yuan, year-on-year + 13.63pct.

Laser mirror control system leader, expand servo control system business: in 2022, the company's income mainly comes from laser processing control system products, totaling 146 million yuan, year-on-year-0.85pct, accounting for 73.79% of the total income and 70.76% of gross profit margin. The slow growth rate is mainly due to the delay of the company's new product release caused by the epidemic in 22 years, which leads to the postponement of some revenue, and the decline of the consumer electronics industry. Resulting in a reduction in related income. The company's galvanometer control system product shipments maintain 1/3 of the market share, for the domestic galvanometer control system leader. Servo control system products are gradually developed, with an annual income of 1.0511 million yuan. Servo control system and galvanometer control system tend to fine micro-machining, which is mainly used in macro processing and has more market space.

The company continues to promote the research and development of high-precision digital galvanometer, and in the research and development of galvanometer motor, the automatic correction technology of high-precision motor encoder has been developed to greatly improve the position measurement accuracy of galvanometer motor and improve the product quality. The company's Invinscan, G3 series galvanometer, some of the performance indicators have reached the level of similar foreign products. At present, the domestic production rate of the high-end galvanometer is less than 20%, and the unit price of the high-end galvanometer is high, and the overall value is higher than that of the medium-and low-end galvanometer. The company promotes the coordinated sales of hardware and software, the difficulty of market development is relatively low, with the gradual commissioning of the company's high-precision galvanometer production capacity, it is expected to bring new growth poles.

Short-term expansion led to a decline in net interest rate, which is expected to be repaired in 23 years: the company's 2022 gross profit margin was 60.46%, year-on-year + 0.94pct, net profit rate 19.63%, year-on-year-6.32pct. The decline in net interest rate is mainly due to the current R & D expenditure rate year-on-year + 7.75pct, management expense rate year-on-year + 2.36pct. The reason is that the increase in the number of management and R & D personnel leads to an increase in salary, new fixed assets and leases lead to an increase in depreciation expenses. The second half of 22 years is the period when the company goes public, the rapid expansion leads to a higher current expense rate, and the follow-up is expected to return to normal. According to the company's quarterly report, the company's 23-year Q1 net interest rate rebounded to 25.47%, mainly because the company received more than 3 million government subsidies in the current period.

Equity incentive shows confidence and binds core employees. The company announced in early February that it intends to grant 1.3 million restricted shares (1.27% of the share capital) to the incentive target. 1.2 million shares were awarded for the first time, with 54 people, accounting for 16.93% of the total number of employees, including 1 vice president, 53 middle-level and core technical backbones. The performance appraisal target is that the year-on-year growth rate of income from 2023 to 2025 is 20.0%, 30.0% and 29.5% respectively, or the growth rate of profit is 15.0%, 20.0% and 19.6% respectively. The company implements the equity incentive plan to bind the interests of the company with the interests of the core employees, establish an interest community and boost confidence.

Investment suggestion: as the leader in the subdivision field of domestic galvanometer control system, the company makes full use of the advantages of its own software products to develop galvanometer hardware products, with large replacement space in high-end field and clear long-term logic. We predict that the company's revenue from 2023 to 2025 will be 2.77,3.68 and 475 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 39.9%, 33.1% and 28.9% respectively, and net profit of 0.68,1.00 and 135 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 74.5,46.3% and 35.1% respectively. Corresponding to the stock price on April 14, the dynamic PE from 2023 to 2025 is expected to be 47.1,32.2 and 23.8 times respectively.

Risk tips: mirror business development is not as expected; the problem of software piracy is difficult to solve; industry competition intensifies.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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