Source: Gelonghui
Is consumer sentiment expected to pick up?
Today, after the automobile sector experienced a sharp drop in pessimistic expectations caused by the price war, the automobile stock sector in Hong Kong and A markets ushered in a rise.
By the close, the A-share CIMC vehicle rose more than 18%, Great Wall Motor rose more than 7%, and Asia Star Bus and Changan Automobile rose 3%. Hong Kong stocks$GREATWALL MOTOR (02333.HK)$An increase of more than 9%,$BRILLIANCE CHI (01114.HK)$An increase of more than 4%,$GEELY AUTO (00175.HK)$An increase of more than 3%,$GAC GROUP (02238.HK)$,$BAIC MOTOR (01958.HK)$,$BYD COMPANY (01211.HK)$Wait for it to follow suit.
According to the news, the first quarter report began. CIMC's Q1 net profit is forecast to have more than tripled, CRRC's net profit for the first quarter increased 165% to 195% year on year, and Great Wall Motor's overseas sales in March increased 112% year on year.
According to another news, the 20th Shanghai International Automobile Industry Exhibition 2023 will be unveiled at the National Convention and Exhibition Center (Shanghai) from April 18 to 27, 2023. Some organizations indicated that the exhibition is expected to drive the recovery of the automobile market.
Export data far exceeded expectations, and the quarterly reporting market began
With the intensive publication of quarterly reports from major companies, it meansThe opening of the market in the first quarter has the strongest indicative significance for the excess earnings of individual stocks in April.
On the automotive side, CIMC Vehicle recently announced that it expects to achieve net profit of 418 million yuan to 511 million yuan after deducting non-return mothers in the first quarter of 2023, an increase of 303% to 393% over the previous year, and an increase of 64% to 100% over 22Q4, exceeding market expectations.
CRRC also announced that it expects to achieve net profit of 582 million yuan to 648 million yuan to shareholders of listed companies in the first quarter of 2023, an increase of 165%-195% over the previous year.
The first-quarter results forecast disclosed by Yinlun Co., Ltd. last night also showed that net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies is estimated to be 120 million yuan to 130 million yuan, an increase of 70.83%-85.07% over the previous year; net profit after deducting non-recurring profit and loss is 110 million yuan to 120 million yuan, an increase of 198.06%-225.16% over the previous year.
Also,The export data for the first quarter can be described as exceeding market expectations.As the most valuable industrial product among them, automobiles occupy a very important position in the increase in exports. According to data from the China Automobile Association, in the first quarter, China's automobile companies exported 994,000 vehicles, an increase of 70.6% over the previous year. Among them, 248,000 new energy vehicles were exported, an increase of 110% over the previous year.In the new energy market, the share of Chinese brands is growing steadily.
In addition to predictions about car companies' performance in the first quarter, another recent focus of attention in the automotive industry is that the 2023 Shanghai Auto Show, as the world's first A-class auto show this year, has attracted the attention of the global automobile industry. As far as automobile consumption is concerned, auto shows have always been an important opportunity for major car companies to introduce preferential policies, bringing benefits to consumers.
According to reports, more than 30 new cars will be launched at this auto show, or pre-sale prices will be announced. In total, more than 1,000 companies will actively participate in the exhibition, with a total exhibition area of more than 360,000 square meters. This auto show has a positive effect on boosting market confidence, promoting automobile consumption, unleashing more vitality for the industry, and forming a joint effort to promote high-quality development.
In the context of the price war in the car market,The demand for related intelligence is gradually being strengthened, and the improvement of intelligent configuration may become the focus of differentiation.
In terms of the penetration rate of smart cars, according to advanced intelligent vehicle data, the penetration rate of L2 and above in January was 32.4%. Among them, the L2+ level penetration rate is still low, and there is a lot of room for improvement this year.
Looking at the industrial chain, the potential space for large computing power+big model enterprises is expanding, and application layer enterprises will usher in a reshuffle and increase in concentration. The ability to replace domestic production in the automotive chip sector is gradually being strengthened. Furthermore, Omniverse will greatly improve R&D and production efficiency, promote the digitalization of the automobile industry, drive manufacturers to reduce costs and increase efficiency, and achieve changes in automobile manufacturing.
Will a new wave of price cuts arrive?
Recently, a new round of global price cuts for Tesla may be imminent. According to Tesla's official website, currently, the price of the high-performance version of the Tesla Model 3 has been reduced by about 9.1%, 1.9%, and 14.7% in Denmark, the US and Hong Kong, respectively. In addition, the selling prices of some models, such as Model S and Model X, have also declined by varying degrees.
However, in the context of lithium ore prices returning to rationality and the formation of large-scale effects in various components of new energy vehicles,The cost advantage is no longer Tesla's patent; domestic independent brands are expected to face a turnaround.
Wang Chuanfu, chairman of BYD, saidThe price war did have a certain psychological impact on consumers, but I believe the impact will decrease by the end of April.Market confidence will gradually recover as cars are showcased around the world in May. I believe that in May, the Chinese automobile market will return to a relatively good level of growth.
Looking back at car sales in March, Cui Dongshu, Secretary General of the CPC, analyzed that weak retail sales in March were the result of a combination of factors such as poor consumption and increased wait-and-see atmosphere brought about by chaotic market prices. As a result, some manufacturers had to use more vigorous promotions to resolve price concerns and achieve continuous sales. Overall, the increase in model prices is the main factor affecting price changes in the car market. Among them, rising resource prices such as lithium carbonate are the main influencing factors.
Looking at the policy level, the government continues to take a number of measures to promote steady growth in automobile consumption, and promotion fee policies are gradually being promoted rationally in various regions. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology recently stated that it is necessary to build an internationally competitive digital industry cluster in stages. Among them, it is necessary to accelerate the clustered development of industries such as 5G, integrated circuits, intelligent connected vehicles, and key software to form a global driving effect. As a key part of the digital economy, support policies for the smart car industry are expected to be gradually strengthened.
What do the agencies think?
What Mu Yong doubted is that the market space for new energy vehicles will still be broad in the future.
According to data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, China's automobile production and sales reached 2,584 million vehicles and 2.451 million vehicles respectively in March, up 15.3% and 9.7% respectively over the previous year. Among them, new energy vehicles continued to maintain relatively rapid growth based on the high base of the same period last year, reaching 26.1% of the market share. Overall, effective domestic demand in the automobile market has yet to be fully released.
According to data from Goldman Sachs Research, electric vehicles will account for about half of global new car sales in 2035 and rise to 61% by 2040.
CITIC Securities believes that looking ahead to the second to fourth quarter of 2023, automobile consumption after the off-season is expected to continue to recover sequentially, driven by the Shanghai Auto Show. Although increased competition in the field of electric vehicles is unavoidable,It is expected that companies with strong “ability to reduce costs” will be more likely to increase their share in the competitive environment of 2023.
Looking ahead to the future market, China Galaxy Securities said that, driven by car companies' increased promotion efforts to actively remove warehouses, compounded by the national low base effect caused by the Shanghai epidemic in the same period last year, the auto market picked up compared to the same period last year. The Shanghai Auto Show is coming soon.A series of new models will be released brilliantly, which is expected to drive a recovery in consumer sentiment. The recovery in demand and abundant supply may resonate, which is conducive to the car market recording good performance in the second quarter against a low base.
China Merchants Securities pointed out that the market share of Chinese brands of passenger cars continues to increase. In March, sales of passenger cars of Chinese brands reached 1,052 million units, an increase of 16.4% over the previous year. The market share showed a continuous upward trend. The market share reached 52.1%, an increase of 3.7 percentage points.The recovery in sales in March fell short of expectations, and the industry is in the stage of passive inventory removal. Price reduction pressure is common in the industrial chain. Corporate heritage, comprehensive strength, and ability to reduce costs will be key factors in subsequent competition.In terms of vehicles, we recommend leading companies with strong comprehensive strength and sufficient orders.
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