Description of the event
The company released its 2022 annual report and the performance forecast for the first quarter of 2023. The company achieved revenue of 582 million yuan in 2022, +114.64% year on year; net profit of the mother was 163 million yuan, +130.38% year on year. According to this estimate, 22Q4 achieved revenue of 140 million yuan +38.43% year on year; Guimu's net profit was 21 million yuan, +272.57% year on year. The net profit of Gimu in 23Q1 is expected to be 0.98-1 to 08 billion yuan, an increase of 88.97%-108.25% over the previous year; after deducting non-net profit of 0.96-106 million yuan, an increase of 90.13%-109.94% over the previous year.
Incident comments
The Q1 performance exceeded expectations. Judging from the central value of the performance forecast, the 23Q1 company's median net profit was about 103 million yuan, an increase of 98.6% over the previous year. According to the company announcement, equity incentive expenses for the full year of 2023 are expected to be 70 million yuan. According to the average estimate for the four quarters, the net operating profit of 23Q1 was about 120 million yuan, and the single-quarter performance reached a record high. 2204 Some of the company's uninspected orders were accepted and made up in 23Q1, and as production capacity was further released, profits exceeded expectations. Looking at the full year of 2023, the company will no longer charge cash rewards for excess performance (cash rewards of 508.30,800 yuan for excess performance in 2022) and equity incentive amortization expenses have been reduced. It is expected that the growth rate of the company's net profit to the mother in 2023 will be higher than the revenue growth rate and continue to achieve high growth.
Cutting dies have surpassed the growth of the industry, and the company's competitive pattern is good. The penetration rate of the portable battery laminating process is gradually increasing. It is estimated that the global demand for energy storage batteries will approach 1000 GWh in 2025, corresponding to the 2023-2025 compound rate of about 60%. Potassium electric cutting dies are blades and tool holders used to cut electrodes in laminators or laminators. They are the core components of the equipment. They have consumable properties and continue to grow as laminated battery production continues to grow. It is estimated that the potassium-electric cutting mold market will reach 5.5 billion yuan in 2025. The company has an excellent core team, leading technology, and an experienced after-sales service team. It can respond quickly, making the company highly competitive and customer stickier. Currently, Hong Precision is the leader in cutting molds for electromechanical molds. It has strong competitiveness in the field of precision mold manufacturing. The market pattern is good and the competitive pattern is good, which also brings high profitability to the company. The company's high gross margin is expected to be maintained in the next few years. It is expected that the company's high gross margin will be maintained in the next few years, and that it will continue to expand new applications. The company is not limited to cutting molds for RIKEN. It has expanded new products and businesses such as coating heads and coating equipment based on market segmentation progress. Zhifeng Technology, a subsidiary of Zhihong Precision, has successfully developed a variety of high-precision extrusion coating dies, which have successfully served the electromechanical industry and OCR glass plate coating. Among them, slit extrusion dies have been delivered in batches, and the company is expected to continue to break through new customers. The downstream market of the mold industry is vast. The company is actively developing high-profit mold business and continuing to expand product categories, which is expected to contribute significant performance.
Maintain a “buy” rating. We expect the company's net profit to the mother in 2023-2025 to be 54.811 million yuan, respectively, corresponding to PE 22, 15, and 11 times, respectively, and will continue to rate the child as a “buyer”.
Risk warning
1. The penetration rate of the laminate market fell short of expectations
2. The company's new products and business development fell short of expectations.