The company released the 2022 annual performance report and the performance forecast for the first quarter of 2023. 1) According to the performance report, the company achieved revenue of 4.10 billion yuan in 2022 (without audit, same below), +36.2% year on year, net profit of 275 million yuan, +50.8% year on year, net profit of non-return mother of 255 million yuan, +90.6% year on year; based on this, we estimate that Q4 2022 achieved revenue of 1.20 billion yuan, +36.6% year-on-year, +6.7% year-on-year, +6.7% year-on-year, +113 million yuan. +34.4%, after deducting net profit of 92 million yuan, +1,168% year on year and +21.8% month on month, in line with market expectations. 2) According to the performance forecast, the company expects to achieve net profit of 0.85 to 105 million yuan in Q1 of 2023, +2,678% to 3,331% year on year, -24.8% to -7.06% month on month, net profit of 0.65-85 million yuan after deduction of net profit of non-return to the mother, +129,900% to 169,900% year on year, and -29.6% to -7.91% year on year, to achieve rapid year-on-year growth. The company lays out industrial automation, network energy, new energy vehicles, photovoltaic energy storage, etc. The market share of products in different fields such as low voltage inverters, modular UPS, and electronic control of new energy commercial vehicles is among the highest in the industry. The industrial automation and network energy business is developing steadily, building a basic market. Growth businesses such as electronic control and optical storage inverters for new energy vehicles are expected to fully benefit from the high level of prosperity in the industry and build a second growth curve. The company's technical advantages are obvious. Cost reduction goes hand in hand with market development, and is expected to usher in rapid development. Maintain the company's target market value of 11.4 billion yuan, corresponding to the target price of 15 yuan/share, and maintain the “buy” rating.
Matters: On April 12, the company released the 2022 annual performance report and the performance forecast for the first quarter of 2023. Our comments on this are as follows:
Net profit of 32 million yuan after deducting non-return to the mother is expected to be achieved in 2022Q4, +1,168% year on year and +21.8% month-on-month, in line with expectations. According to the performance report, the company achieved revenue of 4.10 billion yuan in 2022 (without audit, same below), +36.2% year on year, net profit of 275 million yuan, +50.8% year on year, net profit of non-return mother of 255 million yuan, +90.6% year on year. Based on this, we estimate that Q4 company achieved revenue of 1.20 billion yuan in 2022, +36.6% year on year, +6.7% month on month, and Guimo's net profit of 113 million yuan, +496% year on year, +34.4% month on month, minus net profit of 91.68 billion yuan, +11.68 billion yuan year on year %, +21.8% month-on-month, in line with market expectations.
It is forecast that 2023Q1, after deducting net profit of non-return to the mother of the mother, was 0.65-85 million yuan, and profit improved significantly over the same period last year. According to the performance forecast, the company expects to achieve net profit of 0.85 to 105 million yuan in Q1 2023, +2,678% to 3,331% year on year, -24.8% to -7.06% month on month, net profit of 0.65-85 million yuan after deduction of net profit of non-return to the mother, +129,900% to 169,900% year on month, and -29.6% to -7.91% month on month. According to the company's performance forecast announcement, the company's performance for the first quarter of 2023 improved sharply year on year, mainly due to the company's active expansion of marketing channels and continuous optimization of internal management. Revenue from various business segments grew steadily. At the same time, the company's gross margin increased year-on-year due to positive influences such as scale effects and falling material prices.
The cornerstone is stable, and the second growth curve has accelerated markedly. 1) Strategic layer, the company expanded its business in multiple fields based on same-source technology, completed strategic transformation and organizational optimization in 2022, accounting for more than 25% of overseas market revenue in recent years; 2) Industrial automation inverters are core products, accounting for more than 50% of total revenue. The company's low-voltage inverters accounted for 5% of the market share of domestic brands in 2021, ranking second among domestic brands, and enhanced integrated service capabilities; 3) The network energy business focused on developing UPS, with a market share of 4.8% of modular UPS in 2020, ranking third in the domestic product brand, introducing a precision air conditioning business to build intelligent power supply+temperature control and development Integrated data center to enhance profitability; 4) The company's new energy vehicle electronic control commercial vehicle market share in 2021 was first. Production capacity continued to expand, new customers such as heavy trucks were discovered, the passenger car market was expanded and orders were obtained in batches to develop multi-integrated drive assembly products with higher single value to help increase revenue; 5) Card position distributed photovoltaic and household storage circuit, photovoltaic inverters and energy storage PCS products were recognized by the market, and performance is expected to increase based on cost reduction and overseas market promotion.
Risk factors: The electrification process of commercial vehicles fell short of expectations; the risk of price increases for upstream raw materials; the risk that the overseas situation and policies would change beyond expectations; the increase in the company's product market share fell short of expectations; the company's market expansion progress fell short of expectations; and the release of production capacity fell short of expectations.
Investment suggestions: The company continues to optimize internal management, open up market space, build a second growth curve for the new energy business based on the industrial control business, and maintain the company's 2022/23/24 net profit forecast of 289/4.29/526 million yuan respectively. The corresponding EPS forecast is 0.37/0.55/0.67 yuan respectively, and the current price corresponding to 2022/23/24 PE is 33/22/18 times, respectively. The company lays out industrial automation, network energy, new energy vehicles, photovoltaic energy storage, etc. The market share of products in different fields such as low voltage inverters, modular UPS, and electronic control of new energy commercial vehicles is among the highest in the industry. The industrial automation and network energy business is developing steadily, building a basic market. Growth businesses such as electronic control and optical storage inverters for new energy vehicles are expected to fully benefit from the high level of prosperity in the industry and build a second growth curve. The company's technical advantages are obvious. Cost reduction goes hand in hand with market development, and is expected to usher in rapid development. Based on the segmented valuation method, referring to the valuation situation of companies that can compare the industrial control business to Huichuan Technology, Megmeet, Xinjie Electric, Raytheon Intelligence, etc., the average in 2023 was about 23xPE (based on Wind's consistent expectations), giving the company's industrial control business a valuation of 23xPE in 2023; referring to the valuation situation of companies such as Imbor and Juyi Technology, the average in 2023 was about 1xPS (based on Wind's consistent expectations), which corresponds to the valuation of the company's new energy business in 2023, maintaining a target market value of 11.4 billion yuan. The target price is 15 yuan/share, maintaining the “buy” rating.