Incident: Guolian Co., Ltd. announced an advance performance increase announcement for the first quarter of 2023. It is expected that 23Q1 will achieve net profit of 264-266 million yuan, an increase of 70%-71.5% over the previous year; after deducting non-net profit of 261-264 million yuan, an increase of 80%-82.1% over the previous year.
The “platform+technology+data” strategy deepened, and the construction of an industrial interconnection ecosystem continued to advance. The company uses platforms, technology, and data to build a vertical industrial Internet ecosystem, uses trading digital tools, supply chain digital tools, and production and operation digital tools to build a technology-driven system for platform operation, uses technology to drive the digital transformation of the supply chain and all aspects of production and operation, accumulates large amounts of data on the trading, supply chain and production side, builds a data foundation, forms a “platform+technology+data” system, opens up multiple industry links, and may enhance the core value of various businesses in the future.
Applications in the field of AI are diversified, and the results of cost reduction and efficiency are worth looking forward to. The company has carried out extensive research and applications in the field of AI, mainly reflected in the fields of intelligent recommendation, sales forecasting, procurement forecasting, and machine vision of e-commerce platforms.
1) Intelligent recommendation aspects: Using deep learning algorithms to more accurately predict user needs based on historical user behavior data, provide more personalized recommendation services, and improve user purchase conversion rates; 2) Sales forecasting and procurement forecasting level: data provides more dimensional analytical advantages for model training, and uses this to predict future market supply and demand from January to March to provide more accurate and efficient transaction predictions; 3) Digital cloud factory/cloud warehouse security identification:
Improving the accuracy of safety monitoring and control is expected to help enterprises make production management intelligent and improve the safety and stability of factory production. The proportion of AI applied to the industrial side is still low, and subsequent companies are expected to empower physical enterprises to improve quality and efficiency through the difficulty of using AI in the main industry on their own platforms.
“Digital Factory+PTDCloud Industrial Internet” drives the digital transformation of the industry. Based on multi-platform large-scale transactions, deep supply chains, and cloud factories, the company built a “digital factory+PTDcloud industrial Internet” through Guolian Cloud. According to company information disclosure, a total of 100 cloud factories and 50 digital factories are expected to be expanded in 2023. After in-depth collaboration, each cloud factory is expected to contribute an average of 5-10 billion dollars in revenue per year on the transaction and supply chain side. Digital factories in the same industrial chain, supply chain, and value chain may gradually achieve closed-loop operation in information flow, order flow, capital flow, and logistics. The integration of new technology and traditional manufacturing industries will accelerate, and digital results can be expected.
Profit forecasts and investment recommendations. Net profit attributable to the mother in 2022-2024 is estimated to be 1.13 billion yuan, 1.98 billion yuan and 3.2 billion yuan respectively. The corresponding PE is 33 times, 19 times, and 12 times, respectively. The company's performance continues to grow rapidly, and the launch of the new Duoduo platform is expected to provide incremental growth. At the same time, considering the large scale of the industrial e-commerce market and the penetration rate of various individual product tracks still has a lot of room for improvement, AI technology empowerment is expected to continue to increase efficiency. Overall, to maintain the “buy” rating, it is recommended to pay attention.
Risk warning: industry policy risk, risk of increased market competition, risk of customer conversion falling short of expectations, risk of strategy advancement falling short of expectations.