Introduction to this report:
The company's 2022 performance is at the center of the performance forecast and is in line with expectations; photovoltaic modules have maintained strong growth; extended to the upstream battery sector, which is expected to deliver results in 2023; and with a comprehensive layout of perovskite, we are optimistic about the company's long-term development.
Key points of investment:
Maintain the increase in holdings rating. According to the performance report, the company is expected to achieve revenue of 4,869 million/ +19.14% in 2022; return mother's net profit is 302 million/ +107.04%, which is at the center of the performance forecast, which is in line with expectations.
Q4 alone achieved revenue of 1,760 million/ +28.7%; net profit of the mother was 101 million/ +6838%. Considering that downstream photovoltaics may face increased competition, the EPS forecast for 23-24 was lowered to 0.71/0.89 yuan (originally 0.74/0.98 yuan). Referring to the industry average, 40 times PE was given in 23 years, and the target price was lowered to 28.4 yuan.
The photovoltaic module business has maintained strong growth, and the leading position is stable. The company has the strength to provide overall solutions for photovoltaic module equipment. The market share of module assembly lines is over 50%, and the market share is higher among leading companies (more than 70%, or even 100%). Among them, the market share of laminators is about 30% (sales volume). Downstream PV module production expansion continued to be booming in 2023, providing momentum for the company's continued growth.
Extending to the upstream battery segment, the supply of HJT+TopCon equipment opens up new growth poles. The company's TopCon 2-in-1 coating equipment (PECVD+PVD) was delivered in June 2022; HJT's cleaning and velvet cleaning equipment in collaboration with Jinshi Energy has received a 4GW order. Currently, the penetration of N-type batteries in the industry is accelerating. According to PV Tech's incomplete statistics, as of March 2023, the production capacity of TopCon nationwide had exceeded 462 GW. With the downstream expansion of production, the company's battery cells are expected to achieve performance in 2023.
The comprehensive layout of perovskite equipment is optimistic about the company's long-term development. As the first equipment supplier to deploy perovskite, the company has achieved a forward-looking layout of core coating equipment such as PVD, ALD, and evaporation. The efficiency of GCL Optoelectronics, a leading perovskite manufacturer, has exceeded 16% and is expected to reach 18% by the end of 2023. The industrialization process is accelerating. We expect the industry to host tenders for multiple GW production lines in 2023, and the company is expected to benefit from its first-mover advantage.
Risk warning: New product development falls short of expectations, downstream demand falls short of expectations, and market competition intensifies.