Introduction to this report:
The company has been deeply involved in the LPG deep processing field for many years and has extended its layout to industries such as maleic anhydride and BDO. The light hydrocarbon comprehensive utilization project is progressing in an orderly manner, and it is expected that the company's performance will continue to grow rapidly.
Key points of investment:
Maintain an “increase in holdings” rating. Affected by factors such as falling prices of maleic anhydride and other products, the company's 23-24 EPS was lowered to 2.56/2.89 yuan (originally 2.83/2.98 yuan), and the 25-year EPS was added to 3.20 yuan. Referring to comparable companies, the company was given 14 times PE for 23 years, and the target price was raised to 35.84 yuan (originally 28.14 yuan).
The 22-year results were in line with expectations. Revenue in '22 was 6.263 billion yuan, +95.62% year on year, and net profit of the mother was 430 million yuan, +205.24% year on year. Among them, 22Q4 revenue was 1,531 million yuan, +47.50% year on year, -13.02% month on month; Guimu's net profit was 95 million yuan, +1078.09% year on year, -24.00% month on month.
The high performance was due to the sharp rise in the prices of the main products MTBE and isooctane, and the increase in production of the 150,000-ton maleic anhydride plant at the end of the year 21 contributed to the increase.
Country 6B will go ahead, and oil additive prices may support it. In 2023, China's gasoline will fully enter the national 6B era. Oil products limit the content of olefins and aromatic hydrocarbons in gasoline components. Isooctane and MTBE have become important substitutes for stabilizing the octane value of gasoline. They are ideal additives for finished gasoline products. They have broad market space, and prices may be supported as a result.
The planned projects will be completed and put into operation one after another, and the company will begin a new round of growth. The company plans a comprehensive light hydrocarbon project, which will focus on maleic anhydride and BDO, and comprehensively lay out downstream high-value-added products. Following the 150,000-ton maleic anhydride plant reaching production, the 60,000-ton PBAT project has now been completed and will soon be put into operation. The butanone co-production project of 130,000 tons of ethyl acetate and the BDO project are under construction. The company is located in the Huizhou Daya Bay Refining and Chemical Zone, where low-cost LPG resources further reduce costs. In the long run, the company will benefit from its integrated layout and industry boom development, and the company's growth is certain.
Risk warning: projects under construction fall short of expectations, risk of fluctuations in product volume and price