Key points of the announcement: SAIC Motor's production in March 2023 was 365,352 vehicles, -12.95%/+17.84% compared to the same month, with sales volume of 351,803 vehicles, respectively -20.59%/+16.75% compared to the same period last month. Among them: SAIC Motor's production and sales volume of passenger cars in March were 88,208/82,258 units, respectively +42.87%/+32.22%, respectively, and +55.07%/+40.61%, respectively; SAIC Volkswagen's production and sales in March were 80,107/81,019 units respectively, -26.15%/-26.36% year-on-year and +3.41%/+10.53%; SAIC-GM's production and sales in March were 63,686/62,800 units, respectively -28.20%/-28.20%/ 29.06%, -12.86%/-7.86% month-on-month; SAIC-GM-Wuling produced and sold 94,947/90,500 units in March, respectively -27.29%/-39.67% year-on-year, and +29.36%/+25.69% month-on-month respectively.
Autology+ exports performed well in March, and the launch of a number of key new cars helped increase subsequent sales. 1) By brand, independent performance is the best. SAIC passenger cars had the best performance in March. Among them, Zhigi sold 2007 vehicles in March, +60.43% over the previous month; key new cars performed brilliantly: on March 27, the Feifan F7 was officially launched and delivery began at the same time. The luxurious and comfortable smart cockpit plus outstanding dynamic performance can be expected. A hit model can be expected, with orders of more than 1500 units per week; MG7 went on sale on March 29, with orders of more than 1,500 units per week. SAIC-GM-Wuling production rebounded month-on-month. In terms of key new cars, Wuling Bingo went on sale on March 29, with orders of more than 3,000 units per week; SAIC Volkswagen's production batch performance in March was worse than that of the group as a whole. Xintuyue went public on March 30. Furthermore, SAIC Volkswagen introduced a limited-time cash discount on March 17, which is expected to boost subsequent sales; SAIC-GM's production batches declined in March on a year-on-year basis. 2) By energy type, the wholesale penetration rate of new energy sources continues to increase. The production batch of new energy vehicles in March was 629/65,200 units, respectively, -11.29%/-12.44% year-on-year, and +26.90%/+46.18% month-on-month respectively.
The wholesale penetration rate of new energy reached 18.55%, +1.73/+3.73 pct respectively over the same period last month. 3) Looking at domestic and foreign markets, exports grew at a high year-on-year rate. SAIC Motor exported 96,700 vehicles in March, +92.10%/+15.46% respectively over the same period last month. The MG4 single model achieved monthly overseas sales exceeding 10,000, making it a hit in overseas markets.
SAIC Motor Group replenished stocks in March. In March, SAIC Motor Group companies had inventories of +13,549 vehicles for the month (compared to February), while SAIC Volkswagen, SAIC-GM, SAIC Passenger Vehicle, and SAIC-GM-Wuling had inventories of -912, +886, +5950, and +4447 vehicles respectively (compared to February).
Profit forecasting and investment ratings: The transformation of traditional leaders, the core technology of the new energy three-power system+intelligent hardware and software full-stack layout, Feifan+Zhiji promoted high-end independent brands, and the beginning of a joint venture electric intelligence transformation, which is expected to increase sales. We maintain the company's net profit forecast for 2022-2024 at 17817/151.22/17.508 billion yuan, the corresponding EPS is 1.52/1.29/1.50 yuan, and the corresponding PE is 9.39/11.06/9.56 times, maintaining the company's “buy” rating.
Risk warning: passenger car production and sales fell short of expectations; the industry price war exceeded expectations.