Hefei Department Store (000417): 2022 revenue fell 0.6% and 2023 business targets were steady

中金公司 · Apr 9, 2023 00:00 · Researches

业绩回顾

2022 年业绩低于我们预期

公司公布2022 年业绩：实现收入63.02 亿元，同降0.6%；归母净利润1.68 亿元，同降7.3%，低于我们预期，我们认为主因4Q22 疫情二次冲击影响线下客流；扣非净利润0.84 亿元，同降11.5%。同时公司拟每10 股派发现金红利0.7 元（含税），分红比例约33%。

分季度看，公司1Q /2Q /3Q /4Q22 营收同比分别+0.2%/+5.1%/+16.5%/-20.8%，归母净利润分别为0.91/0.14/0.94/-0.31 亿元；扣非净利润分别为0.60/-0.08/0.41/-0.09 亿元。

发展趋势

1、2022 年营收同比微降0.6%。1）分行业看，2022 年公司百货业/超市业/农产品交易/房地产营收同比分别-7.8% /+2.6% /+4.4% /+14.4%，占比分别为34.1%/54.0%/6.5%/5.4%。其中百货业加快调整，引进重点品牌45 个、新品牌41 个，全年品牌更新率11.4%；超市主业稳健增长，全省线上平台门店数达157 家，区域联动力增强；农产品流通业务实现交易额452.4 亿元，超额完成全年目标。2）分渠道看，线下渠道聚焦提质增效，2022 年净关百货商场/直营超市/加盟超市1/8/1 家，报告期末门店总数241 家，其中百货/超市/电器各24/192/25 家；线上渠道增长良好，自建/第三方线上销售平台GMV 分别同增59.7%/17.0%至1.14/2.27 亿元。

2、主业毛利率下滑拖累公司整体盈利能力。2022 年公司毛利率为29.3%，同降1.5ppt，其中百货业/超市业/农产品交易/房地产毛利率同比分降2.1/0.3/2.4/4.3ppt，主因疫情反复叠加行业竞争加剧。费用率方面，公司销售费用率同增0.1ppt 至7.3%，管理费用率同增0.2ppt 至16.6%，财务费用率同降0.5ppt 至0.8%。综合影响下归母净利率同降0.2ppt 至2.7%，扣非净利率同降0.2ppt 至1.3%，盈利能力持续下滑。

3、2023 年经营目标稳健，关注公司转型变革成效显现。公司目标2023 年实现营业收入65 亿元以上，并将多措并举加速转型变革：1）通过多业态差异化经营夯实主业根基，积极引入品牌首店、旗舰店、体验店等，提高品牌更新效率；2）全力推动经营模式创新，进一步探索新经销、包毛利、深度联营等合作模式；3）聚焦数字化转型，加快“数字百大”、“智慧百大”建设，做大做强线上业务规模，拉动销售增量。

盈利预测与估值

维持2023 年盈利预测2.12 亿元，引入2024 年盈利预测2.30 亿元，当前股价对应2023/24 年19/17 倍P/E，维持跑赢行业评级与目标价5.20 元，对应2023/24 年19/18 倍P/E，较当前有3%上行空间。

风险

行业竞争加剧，转型不及预期，地产调控收紧。

Performance review

The 2022 results fell short of our expectations

The company announced its 2022 results: achieved revenue of 6.302 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.6%; Guimu's net profit was 168 million yuan, a decrease of 7.3%, lower than our expectations. We believe that the second impact of the 4Q22 epidemic mainly affected offline passenger flow; after deducting non-net profit of 84 million yuan, a decrease of 11.5%. At the same time, the company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.7 yuan (tax included) for every 10 shares, with a dividend ratio of about 33%.

On a quarterly basis, the company's 1Q/2Q/3Q/4Q22 revenue was +0.2%/+5.1%/+16.5%/-20.8%, and the net profit attributable to the mother was 0.91/0.14/0.94/-031 billion, respectively; net profit after deducting non-net profit was 0.60/-0.08/0.41/-09 billion, respectively.

Development trends

1. Revenue in 2022 fell slightly by 0.6% year on year. 1) By industry, the company's department store/supermarket/agricultural products transactions/real estate revenue in 2022 was -7.8% /+2.6% /+4.4% /+14.4% year-on-year, accounting for 34.1%/54.0%/6.5%/5.4%, respectively. Among them, the department store industry accelerated its adjustment, introducing 45 key brands and 41 new brands, with an annual brand renewal rate of 11.4%; the main supermarket business grew steadily, with the number of online platform stores in the province reaching 157, increasing regional linkage; and the agricultural product distribution business achieved a transaction volume of 45.24 billion yuan, exceeding the annual target. 2) Looking at separate channels, offline channels focus on improving quality and efficiency. In 2022, Jingguan department store/direct-run supermarket/franchise supermarket was 1/8/1, with a total of 241 stores at the end of the reporting period, including 24/192/25 department stores/supermarkets/electronics stores; online channels grew well, with self-built/third-party online sales platform GMV increasing 59.7%/17.0% to $114/227 million respectively.

2. The decline in gross margin of the main business is dragging down the company's overall profitability. The company's gross margin in 2022 was 29.3%, a decrease of 1.5ppt. Among them, the gross margin of the department store/supermarket/agricultural products transactions/real estate fell 2.1/0.3/2.4/4.3ppt year-on-year, mainly due to repeated epidemics and increased industry competition. In terms of expense ratio, the company's sales expense ratio increased by 0.1ppt to 7.3%, the management expense ratio increased by 0.2ppt to 16.6%, and the financial expense ratio decreased by 0.5ppt to 0.8%. Under the combined influence, net interest rate to the mother fell 0.2ppt to 2.7%, and after deducting non-net interest rates, it fell 0.2ppt to 1.3%, and profitability continued to decline.

3. The business goals for 2023 are steady, and focus on the effectiveness of the company's transformation and transformation. The company aims to achieve revenue of more than 6.5 billion yuan by 2023, and will take more measures to accelerate transformation and transformation: 1) consolidate the foundation of the main business through differentiated management in multiple business formats, actively introduce brand first stores, flagship stores, experience stores, etc., to improve brand renewal efficiency; 2) fully promote business model innovation and further explore cooperation models such as new distribution, gross profit, and deep joint ventures; 3) focus on digital transformation to accelerate the construction of “Digital 100” and “Smart 100”, expand and strengthen the scale of online business, and drive sales growth.

Profit forecasting and valuation

The 2023 profit forecast was maintained at 212 million yuan, and the 2024 profit forecast was introduced at 230 million yuan. The current stock price corresponds to 2023/24 19/17 times P/E, maintaining outperforming the industry rating and target price of 5.20 yuan, corresponding to 19/18 times P/E in 2023/24, which is 3% upward from the current price.

risks

Competition in the industry has intensified, transformation has fallen short of expectations, and real estate regulation has been tightened.

The translation is provided by third-party software.

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合肥百货(000417)：2022年营收同降0.6% 2023年经营目标稳健

Hefei Department Store (000417): 2022 revenue fell 0.6% and 2023 business targets were steady

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