维持“增持”评级 。2022年公司实现营收486亿元人民币，同比下降6.42%；归母净利润8.08 亿元人民币，同比下降67.62%，业绩略低于预期。考虑公司成本端继续承压，下调2023-2024 年EPS 预测为0.35/0.41 元人民币（原0.49 /0.55 元人民币），新增2025 年EPS 预测为0.47 元人民币，对应归母净利润为13.10/15.32/17.31 亿元人民币。参考同类公司给予2023 年5倍PE 估值，下调目标价为2.00 港元（原2.44 港元），维持“增持”评级。Introduction to this report:
The company's 2022 results were slightly lower than expected. As demand recovers in 2023, the company's performance is expected to pick up again; in addition, as the company's power equipment sector business continues to expand, it will contribute more performance growth to it.
Summary:
Maintain an “increase in holdings” rating. In 2022, the company achieved revenue of 48.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.42%; Guimu's net profit was 808 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 67.62%, and performance was slightly lower than expected. Considering the continued pressure on the company's cost side, the 2023-2024 EPS forecast was lowered to RMB 0.35/0.41 (previously RMB 0.49/0.55), the new EPS forecast for 2025 was RMB 0.47, and the corresponding net profit of RMB 13.10/15.32/1,731 billion was RMB. Referring to similar companies, which gave a five-fold PE valuation in 2023, lowered the target price to HK$2.00 (previously HK$2.44), maintaining the “increase in holdings” rating.
The company's performance is expected to pick up again in 2023 as demand recovers. In 2022, the company sold 7.1 million tons of steel, a year-on-year decrease of 10.9%; of these, H-beam sales were 3.77 million tons, an increase of 1.3% over the previous year, maintaining the leading position in the domestic market; steel belt products sold 2.59 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 11.4%. In 2022, the company's gross profit per product was 167 yuan/ton, a year-on-year decrease of 63.5%. Affected by adverse factors such as the epidemic in 2022, downstream demand was sluggish, affecting the company's product sales and profit levels; in 2023, as demand recovers, the company's profits are expected to rise again.
The industrial chain extends downward and lays out the power equipment sector. Jinxi Steel, an indirect subsidiary of the company, subscribed for about 40.5% of Huijin Tong's shares in September 2021 and became its controlling shareholder, extending the industrial chain downward.
In 2022, Huijintong contributed 3.28 billion yuan of power equipment sales revenue to the company. Furthermore, in August 2022, the company announced that Guangxi Huadian, an indirect subsidiary of Guangxi Huadian, plans to acquire an asset package for Guangxi Power Transmission and Transformation, a transmission tower plant with a production capacity of about 100,000 tons, and will achieve synergies with the company's transmission tower plant bases in Qingdao, Chongqing, and Taizhou, and the company's power equipment business segment will expand further.
The feeder railway project is progressing steadily, opening up supply chain channels. The company began construction of a feeder railway project for the transportation of the company's materials and goods in 2019. The feeder railway will connect the company's facilities with railway transportation hubs and nearby ports. By the end of 2022, the construction of feeder railways had completed all related projects other than the contact network. Once the local government completed the capacity expansion and transformation of the railway for which it is responsible, it will be open to traffic. After the railway is put into operation, the company's logistics costs are expected to be drastically reduced, and operating capacity will be further improved.
Risk warning: Demand recovery fell short of expectations, and raw material prices rose sharply.