Event: Blue Moon announced financial results for 2022, recording revenue of HK$7.947 billion for the full year, up 4.6% year on year; gross profit margin was 57.8%, down 0.6 pp year on year; net profit of HK$611 million, down 39.7% year on year; net profit after excluding exchange gains and losses was HK$767 million, a decrease of 19.2% year on year. Based on comprehensive considerations, we forecast that the company's EPS for 2023-2025 will be HK$0.21/0.26/0.29, giving the company 25 times the PE in 2024, with a target price of HK$6.38, giving it a “buy” rating.
Report summary
Revenue grew steadily, and product portfolio optimization increased ASP Blue Moon recorded revenue of HK$7.947 billion in 2022, up 4.6% year over year. Among them, clothing cleaning and care revenue was HK$6.821 billion, up 5.7% year on year, mainly due to increased sales of classic products brought about by increased penetration rate of offline channels and increased sales of new products (laundry detergent for underwear, disinfectant and deodorant laundry detergent, and sports laundry detergent); revenue from personal cleaning products increased 2.9% year over year to HK$619 million; household cleaning and nursing revenue fell 6.1% year on year to HK$506 million, mainly due to changes due to the devaluation of the RMB, segment revenue denominated in RMB remained stable. The continuous launch of new products has further optimized the company's product portfolio and led to the improvement of overall ASP.
Channel reform continues to deepen, and dealers have continued to expand for 22 years, and the company has continued to expand and deepen the penetration of its distribution network in the country. Since the pandemic has changed consumer consumption behavior to a certain extent, the company has expanded the coverage of the channel network to convenience stores, fresh food supermarkets and local stores. Furthermore, the company maintained its lead in sales of home care and clothing cleaning products on the O2O platform, ranking first in Meituan Flash Sale and JD Home Delivery. In '22, the company's sales revenue through offline distributors increased 19.7% year on year to HK$3,253 million, and its revenue share increased to 40.9%; KA channel sales revenue fell 12.7% year on year to HK$937 million, mainly due to store closures under the pandemic; online channel revenue fell 1.3% year on year to HK$3,757 million, mainly due to exchange rate changes.
Gross margin is under pressure, and profits have declined, and the company's gross margin in '22 was 57.8, down 0.6 pp from the previous year. Mainly due to fluctuations in raw materials, it is believed that gross margin in '23 can return to a good level as raw material costs continue to fall. Net profit to the mother decreased 39.7% year-on-year to HK$611 million, as a result of both declining gross margin and exchange gains and losses.
Investment advice: As the company continues to develop and launch new products, and the channel layout deepens and expands, while the pressure on raw materials gradually eases, there is still considerable room for future growth. Based on comprehensive considerations, we forecast that the company's EPS for 2023-2025 will be HK$0.21/0.26/0.29, giving the company 25 times the PE in 2024, with a target price of HK$6.38, giving it a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: macroeconomic downturn; fluctuations in raw material prices affect gross profit margins; channel expansion falls short of expectations.